1/15-1/18 Storm System

[StormNine]

The way this cold front just went across the gulf we won't have to worry about severe weather for awhile.

[Thundersnow]

It's a dynamic, intense, high-QPF system on the model though, bringing at least heavy rain on the southeast side of it.  If there is a severe aspect of it, the greatest chance would obviously be in the far Southeast, like over Florida, I would think.  But, whatever the nature of the system, it will depend on how she tracks.

It could be a pretty significant system in terms of impacts, so we'll just have to see what the models do with it over the coming days.

[Adam]

Well well well, here comes another storm potential. I have not been on here, have i missed anything?

[Kevin]

I'm taking a much needed break for a while with model watching...just have other things I have to do for a while and have just been completely burned out by this recent system/pattern.

My advice I'll give...and I'm sure most know/understand this...but for especially newer members: Don't get too wrapped up in this...if this last week has taught you anything. I wouldn't be getting my hopes up on a system that early on looks much warmer than any potential system since Christmas...and again if wintry weather if a concern...ice would now be #1 versus snow. Hopefully there will be better luck...but I wouldn't count on it.

I'll be checking back on it later this week if it still looks something interesting could be down the pipe...

[Eric]

Well well well, here comes another storm potential. I have not been on here, have i missed anything?

All the info you need can be found in this thread.

[tennessee storm09]

if the 18z ensembles verifies. lowes and home depot will be out of generators. not good

[SnowSeek]

Great start to the thread, thanks for allowing the smarter folks to kick around their thoughts without the interjection of "WHEN?" "WHERE?" "HOW MUCH WILL I GET?"...

And I think the timing is right for the start of the thread because I have seen this group latch on to storms much further out then this.  So Good deal thanx guys!

[Snowmachine]

How are we supposed to get ice when everywhere I look I see temps near 50 degrees?  Guess I'm not looking in the right place.

[Eric]

How are we supposed to get ice when everywhere I look I see temps near 50 degrees?  Guess I'm not looking in the right place.

I haven't looked at diddly, and possibly won't until the Monday at the earliest, but there could be a regime of shallow cold air at the surface that the models aren't picking up on.  Again, I don't have poop to support that.  Only my  .

[Curt]

I have taken a much needed break from model hugging for a few days, and my recovery is well under way. However, after looking at the weekend system, it does bear watching since this thing could be a monster on the gulf coast. My gut is to lean to mostly rain, and take a cautious approach on the backside for Sat nite as the ULL passes directly overhead. Last nights EMCWF has the storm generating its own cold air for a transition to snow in East TX, although not sure of the QPF.

AFD Little Rock

WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS WE ARE
STILL TALKING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND MODELS COULD ALWAYS CHANGE.
MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH CARRYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH MUCH ANTICIPATED WARMING BEFORE THE SYSTEM
ARRIVES...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE ALL LIQUID INITIALLY. HOWEVER AS
THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...MODELS SUPPORT SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM FOR NOW BUT MONITOR CLOSELY
AS EVENT UNFOLDS.

Still a long way out, but there is defintely a consistency in track, and I do not see this thing going NW. Bottom line: bears watching (and where was this storm when we really needed it!)

[Charles L.]

I'm trying my best to not look at this system until Tuesday or so...but seeing this thread is making it hard. haha

I am going with a mostly rain event with backside snow until I see it lean one way or the other.

I'm hearing the ice could be a problem with this one, but that will even be hard to pin-point on the day of the event if that comes to be the form of precipitation.

[jmundie]

I'm not jumping on the bandwagon for this storm yet. I imagine someone is gonna get some snow from it, just from the dynamic cooling from the low pressure.

What's really messing with me though is how a storm that is this strong isn't pulling in more cold air. Its like it attempts to connect to the northern stream and then loses it. I just have trouble with that occurring in january.

We'll see. We're within truncation now (finally) so we'll see where things go from here. I'm not gonna start getting excited until this thing is still showing up on Wednesday.

[Thundersnow]

6Z GFS today shows the storm just about completely missing TN, with no QPF showing up at all for most of us:



As far as wintry threats are concerned, I wonder if CAD-favored areas east of the mountains in NC stand the best chance... and that would probably be ice more likely than snow if it is wintry weather, as it stands right now.  But, even the 2M temps are questionable at this point.

It may again depend on how well the models handle the retreating Arctic air.

[Thundersnow]

Well, a NWS office out of Louisiana makes a startling comparison on this system:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010


...LONG TERM...A DESCENDING 170KT SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR BAJA AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO CARVE OUT AND DIG A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO. GFS MODEL AGRREMENT WITH THE EURO AND
AVAILABLE ENERGY TO THIS SYSTEM BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES WITH THE
GULF STORM SYSTEM OF MARCH `93. A DEEP AND INTENSIFYING GULF LOW
BELOW 1000HPA IS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GFS RUN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF EARLY SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.

The only problem is... there isn't a hint in the models that we'll have anything near the amount of cold air that was available with that system.  But, from the perspective of those living along the Gulf Coast, this could be an intense system.  Superstorm '93 even brought a storm surge along the coast, as intense as it was.

[Eric]

Well, a NWS office out of Louisiana makes a startling comparison on this system:

The only problem is... there isn't a hint in the models that we'll have anything near the amount of cold air that was available with that system.  But, from the perspective of those living along the Gulf Coast, this could be an intense system.  Superstorm '93 even brought a storm surge along the coast, as intense as it was.