1/15-1/18 Storm System

[Thundersnow]

Although we are still in the loosely monitoring phase with this system, this caught my eye.

...but when we go down to the surface...
That's a lot of ice.

Taken literally... ice storm.

It will be interesting to see how well the models handle the retreating Arctic air mass in the next days.  As of now, most forecasts have mid 40s in here by the middle of next week.

[Clay]

That strong area of high pressure over Niagara Falls would filter in the low level cold air and get us in trouble.

[ams30721us]

I think this is a very good thread to get started. I also find it interesting that half the post in this one already is for people who arent even gonna entertain this yet. Hmmm seems like if your posting in it you already have. Just my  

Alright onto the storm being modeled. This looks like a very good wintry setup. First the southern branch is going to have a large gulf low setup with a nice ULLattached to it. The storm digs all the way down into Mexico and southern texas on all the models. The storm and southern stream is a given as every model shows the development of it. The differences are within the northern branch but both the Euro and GFS shows cold air very close plus a strong wedge developing. The wedge being shown is farther south and west than the ones so far this year which is leading to a more higher confidence in the threat of major icing. The Euro Surface temps (not 850s) as seen on the pay maps shows most of tennessee with surface temps in the low to mid 30s. So while just warm enough right now for mainly Rain to snow from this system one would need def. need to monitor trends esp in East Tenn. Finally both show rain to snow on the back side and under the ULL which could be pretty significant. Again No need in sounding the alarms quite yet but as this is a weather board and a threat showing up within 7 days inside of 200hrs actually I wouldnt know why one would think its to early to talk about the possibilities and what models are showing. We all know yes there is a high risk in fact likely it wont happen like modeled now and there will be changes but thats why I thought this was a weather forum to discuss things like this?? Anyway just my   every one can get back to talking about why discussing potential of this event should not have its on thread....

[Woodvegas]

1/9 12Z GFS is warmer and says we get rain only...a lot of rain.

[ams30721us]

Yes it does but its not as bad at one may think....Still low to mid 30's

1. the S/w comes in later this run than the previous
2. the S/w is therefore slower moving out of the west
3. This allows the High pressure to retreat farther east before the storm moves in
4. Cold air stays close though with a low tracking well to the south so all in all
Def. gonna be an interesting and fun system to track...

[Clay]

The Canadian high was further north. No cold air got wedged in down here.

[jmundie]

12z solution seems wacky. the storm begins to connect with the northern stream, then it moves south and loses it... brews in the gulf for several days and becomes a warm core almost tropical looking low.

models know something is happening, but i'm not convinced they have any clue what.

[Cameron K.]

1/9 12Z GFS is warmer and says we get rain only...a lot of rain.

Very warm indeed. Overall I just haven't seen a lot of good cold flow coming to the system. I say that because I lack the proper meteorological term for it. lol Seems to get cut off so there's not a lot of cold air work with.

The Canadian high was further north. No cold air got wedged in down here.

Yeah same here. I notice just doesn't want to dig down in the US like the one have now did. Right now I hold little confidence in the setup unless a CC upper low forms or more cold air from Canada becomes availible.  It's still some ways off, so we'll see. 

[Thundersnow]

I think I mentioned this the other day, but it wouldn't surprise me if the system ends up trending well to the northwest, and we end up in the 50s or even 60s with perhaps thunderstorms, and this ends up being a severe weather thread. 

But, we'll have to see how it works out.  I'm not sure we blowtorch quite that much in this general pattern.

Yet, that's not to rule out this system being wintry for us either.  Just too far out to say at this point.

[cliftown04]

This is the reason I like this forum unlike a few days ago nobody on here is getting all giddy wanting to know where, when, and how much.

[Thundersnow]

This is the reason I like this forum unlike a few days ago nobody on here is getting all giddy wanting to know where, when, and how much.

I think (I hope) everyone got a reality check with this last system to remind us of how pointless it is to drill in too deep on specifics on a storm a week out.

[Charles L.]

I think I mentioned this the other day, but it wouldn't surprise me if the system ends up trending well to the northwest, and we end up in the 50s or even 60s with perhaps thunderstorms, and this ends up being a severe weather thread. 

But, we'll have to see how it works out.  I'm not sure we blowtorch quite that much in this general pattern.

Yet, that's not to rule out this system being wintry for us either.  Just too far out to say at this point.

This is my current thinking. The SE ridge may play a key role in this event and I think seeing severe weather from this is more likely then snow.

[ams30721us]

The Upper low and Clipper system is being shown just not connecting this run but its there. The Storm system will most likely not TREND NW enough for for us to be in the 50's/60s and Severe weather....

[tennessee storm09]

i am going to go out on a limb, saying severe weather will be the least of our worries on that system.

[maryvillereb2003]