Early January Snow Event & Cold Weather

[Thundersnow]

ugh, suppression city. look how freaking cold its gonna be by monday morning

This extended dry suppression pattern... I'm not sure I'm buying it.

With that El Nino driven subtropical jet?

Something's got to give.

Either the pattern won't be as strong as advertised, and we see warmer periods than what the model sees... or some things are in the brew that the model doesn't/can't see at this point...

[mempho]

00Z Verbatim after 84 hours we do not get above freezing the entire rest of the run.

I don't believe that will actually happen based on experience.  That also means (to me, at least) that our little suppression act is unlikely to happen.  I could be surprised, but I don't recall a 300 hour period of below freezing in a long time, even at the 850mb level.

[Clay]

00Z Verbatim after 84 hours we do not get above freezing the entire rest of the run.

Good grief. I didn't believe you until I looked for my self. I've never seen that much cold air on a model run here period.

[mempho]

This extended dry suppression pattern... I'm not sure I'm buying it.

With that El Nino driven subtropical jet?

Something's got to give.

Either the pattern won't be as strong as advertised, and we see warmer periods than what the model sees... or some things are in the brew that the model doesn't/can't see at this point...

You posted while I was typing basically the same thing.  We are in basic agreement.  If that does verify, then we are talking about a legendary cold spell here.  

[ams30721us]

uhm 00z Euro will be huge tonight  a very nice trend tonight on the 00z UKIE....00z Canadian....and to a lesser extent but better 00z GFS and NAM with holding that 2 shortwave back in the sw through or even past 84 hrs which allows seperation and much more digging which trends back to a miller a type low to develop by friday. Of course not a forecast or anything but some major changes on global models for tonight just in time for the system to move over the baja region. Lets hope this continues. Theres Hope....

[Sbeagles]

WOW!! Just saw that cold spell we may have in store. We better put another log on the fire  

[Thundersnow]

It's probably time to split this thread, to make a distinction between possible winter weather around the New Years holiday, per the OP... and some distant rumblings of what may be coming next week and beyond...

[Snowman]

Def. Alot of hype starting to circulate about next week. Thanks TWC... 

[mempho]

Good grief. I didn't believe you until I looked for my self. I've never seen that much cold air on a model run here period.

I still like the cold, so   at these surface temps at 180 hours:

[Thundersnow]

Cold weather definitely seems to be in the cards at any rate.  Some of the local mets were showing high temperatures not going above freezing this weekend. 

I believe that qualifies as a "deep freeze" if nothing else.

[Kevin]

Wow...00z MEXMOS going 23/34 for KMEM Airport on Day 7...and that's trended heavily toward Climatology. Raw numbers are more like 13/22...and that would be the warm spot of the region. The H5 pattern during this period is dry northwest flow...not supportive of systems tapping gulf moisture (perhaps a clipper or two).

[Thundersnow]

0Z EURO is looking... interesting... for the first of next week.

[Thundersnow]

Wowsers...

[shooting70]

Thundersnow,i dont mean to sound like a dumba**,but what is the 0zeuro telling us besides cold air coming our way??Im being dead serious.

[Thundersnow]

The details are a little hard to decipher on the freebie version of the EURO.

But, a general look indicates a system moving through the Southeast with cold air in place, with very cold, even colder air coming in behind it.