Winter Weather - New Years Eve?

[mempho]

Regardless of ones opinion on agw, it's clear thy ocean temperatures have risen significantly over the last 20 years. I've just got to believe it's contributed to lack of midsouth snow and ice storms, cause that's where the warm air in waa comes from; the gulf.

In Texas, the low is pulling in air from the mountains in Mexico, warmer, but certainly not as warm as the 70+ degree bathwater in the gulf, plus it doesn't take much northwest flow off of the mountains to pull in cold air, at least aloft.

Tennessee has got to be the worst place to be for snow as long as we've got warmer oceans.

We have gotten unfavorable tracks for most of the past 20 years.  That's all there is to it.  These tracks have changed over time but many, myself included, believe they are cyclical.  

I also happen to believe that the planet is now cooling.  

[mempho]

However its kind of strange that Hattiesburg and South MS keep cashing in year after year. Ther are worse places to be. Try Birmingham AL for starters where only 5 inches of snow has fallen in this decade. Yikes!

Oh, but that 1993 Superstorm was a mega-cash for them....though, it was in March, which takes some of the enjoyment out of it. 

[Snowmachine]

And the models did an excellent job with that storm a week out but now they can't hold a storm for 2 consective runs. 

[Curt]

Oh, but that 1993 Superstorm was a mega-cash for them....though, it was in March, which takes some of the enjoyment out of it. 

 

[rookie]

Just a note.....thanks to you guys for all the posts.  I rarely post, (because I have nothing knowledgeable to say)but am obsessed with reading here! It is funny though because my family will see me on here and say......"why do you look at that?  It's NEVER going to snow."   

[Charles L.]

Updated zone forecast had a 50% chance of rain/snow on New Year's Eve and then a 50% chance that night. That is up from just rain on new year's eve and a 40% chance New year's eve overnight. 

[Curt]

Just a note.....thanks to you guys for all the posts.  I rarely post, (because I have nothing knowledgeable to say)but am obsessed with reading here! It is funny though because my family will see me on here and say......"why do you look at that?  It's NEVER going to snow."   

Keep posting, your opinion is valuable and for the most part we are all rookies at this. You will learn a ton from just reading others' posts. Oh, and let them fam know to bite their tongues! 

[Adam]

They updated the snow forcast in my area too. Maybe we will get something out of this.

[ChrisPC]

However its kind of strange that Hattiesburg and South MS keep cashing in year after year. Ther are worse places to be. Try Birmingham AL for starters where only 5 inches of snow has fallen in this decade. Yikes!

I grew up there, but moved up here about 6 years ago. They started getting snow almost every year since I moved. 

[Kevin]

MEG Update:

FEW IF ANY CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING AT MIDEVENING. 00Z LZK 
SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600MB AND 925MB. 
AT 0215Z...AREA RADARS SHOWED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALOFT. KNQA   
VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THIS PRECIP WAS NOT LIKELY MAKING DOWN 
BELOW 12KFT...BUT WAS LOWERING GRADUALLY. 
 
WHILE THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER 
PRECIP... MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS THAT A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT...CURRENTLY NOSING INTO 
ARKLATEX... WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SHORTLY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...LIMITING LIFT IN THE EARLY MORNING.   
 
18Z NAM 285K ROUGHLY 850MB ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS ISENTROPIC 
LIFT RETURNING AROUND 15Z...WITH SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS 
THAN 10MB ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER. THIS SURFACE WOULD BE NEAR 
850MB...SUGGESTING LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN ABOUT THE TIME NAM 
SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

[Charles L.]

Dang dry slot! 

[jmundie]

that's a dry slot, but not the "dry slot"

The dry slot is the southwest portion of a low pressure that lacks moisture. leading to everyone around getting high snow totals, but a small area getting little to no snow.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

My two cents about this system...

It's a yawner.  I'm really not seeing flurries, let alone any snow that would accumulate.  But we shall see, won't we.  After all, this is Tennessee.

[JJJackson]

FWIW - it's sleeting in midtown Memphis at the moment. Light, but definitely noticeable.

[Woodvegas]

Time to stick a fork in this one....next...