Winter Weather - New Years Eve?

[SnowSeek]

What I think is so valuable for JB is not whethere he predicts this storm or that storm, but his overall patterns have almost all been perfect this year. 

Nobody can predict something 240 plus I don't care how good they claim to be.  But if we know certain things are going to aligning here or there then we can guess that the pattern will give us some an inkling of what's to come.  I don't expect Joe to call a storm 8 days out and ride it home.  I do expect him to call the general patterns 8-15 days out.  That's what you pay for with Joe Bastardi

[Curt]

SGF?  Is that Springfield, MO?

Yes sir

[Eric]

Yes sir

Interesting that SGF is discussing it in their AFD.  Interesting, indeed.

[Curt]

Interesting that SGF is discussing it in their AFD.  Interesting, indeed.

oops..latest AFD from SGF:

REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THE
PASSING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS INTO MONDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SECOND
PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA

[Eric]

oops..latest AFD from SGF:

Ahh.....that makes much more sense.

[Eric]

Boy, it's gonna be windy as heck around Christmas. The isobars around the attendant low are as tightly packed as I've ever seen them.

[Thundersnow]

With the tendency of storm tracks to shift northward on the models over time, I think a solution that shows a system being suppressed to our south is probably the best we can hope for in the long range right now.

Model skill is just horrible in this pattern.

We can't really start taking anything seriously until we get within three or four days of an event.

[Nashville_wx]

[StormNine]

Boy, it's gonna be windy as heck around Christmas. The isobars around the attendant low are as tightly packed as I've ever seen them.

It twas a night Before Christmas not a creature was staring because they were all blown away. 

[Clay]

I'm not going to lie, I'll take suppression if it means NW trend later.

[Eric]

18z GFS = crapola.  SERIOUS suppression and cold looks to be retreating.  The only saving grace is that 1.) it's still 200+ hours out, and 2.) it's the 18z.

[Adam]

Well dang is it gonna just keep happening again and again??? I mean i about did this number  , when i saw your comment Eric.

[beth]

Don't give up, Adam. We still have Jan, Feb, and yes, the first of March. I got a good snow two years ago in March. It sneak up on us and surprise us all! 

[Adam]

O im not giving up this one is still not out.

[Clay]

O im not giving up this one is still not out.

This drama is pretty much a normal winter season here at TNWX, Adam. We watch snow go north, south, east and west of us, take crap from the GFS and in the end somehow squeeze out some snow. Don't like the drama... move to Minnesota and you won't have to worry about if it will snow.