Winter Weather - New Years Eve?

[Eric]

Post further discussions on the NY Eve's storm here.

[Eric]

12z GFS shows storm suppression, but the cold air still looks to be in place.  Given that we're still 200+ hours out, though, the fact that the storm and cold air is there means absolutely zilch.

[Crockett]

Gee, thanks for jinxing us with the new thread.

Throw the 12z run out. And any other run that shows this thing suppressed.

[Crockett]

Wow, the 12z GFS is the worst model run ever. Cold air in place for all three storms (12/30-31, 1/2-3, 1/4-5) but all three are suppressed. The GFS is such a tease.

[snowdog]

At this point I'd rather it be surpressed.  The low is there and the cold air is there.  As long as those 2 players stay on the field this far out we are in the game. 

[Nashville_wx]

This is a hard pattern for any model to grasp. I do not think we can direct this at the GFS and not point fingers elsewhere as well. Until we get all these ULL features situated, I believe 500mb pattern will continue to evolve and change past 100hours. Just take a look at the mechanics that are going on @ 500mb. Change 1 thing and everything downstream is effected.

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

[Eric]

I do find it rather interesting that more than half the country is under some sort of winter weather advisory.  Pretty cool.

[SnowSeek]

Here we go again, Bastardi is beating the drum for some big events on New Year's Eve and then a bigger storm behind that.  Bastardi sees a continuation of the current pattern and actually thinks it's going to get much cooler acrose the country.  I am not a Joe Bastardi spokesman but if you have been following Joe this winter you have been given a treat.  Again, I am sure Joe has missed some big ones in the past, and yes their is a twinge of hype to many of Bastardi's forecast.  But as of late the guy has had things absolutly whipped.  He nailed that last storm 6-7 days out when most ppl were saying that Low was going to move off the coast and dissapear.  Bastardi flat out said Noway and he was right. 

His winter forecast back in October has been a thing of beauty.  I must say, buying that professional subscribtion on Accuweather has been a real treat for me.  Sometimes Joe's goofyness is more then I can take and I have to cut the video off in midstream, but the content has been deadly accurate.

[Woodvegas]

12/22 12/Z Euro shows a Gulf low on 12/29 which tracks to the south of us and could give us a little winter weather. It does not show the low going up the east coast. Still a long ways off...

[Franklin SnowKing]

I'm with you on JB. I've been a subscriber for several years during the Winter months and its great to get his take on things. Sure he makes mistakes but more often than not he is right on the money. He is not a model worshipper like some of his Accu Weather cohorts. We are due here in Middle Tennessee to get a big one and no better time than New Years when we can enjoy it and not have to drive to work! By the way todays 7 to 10 day Cpc shows cold for our area.

[Curt]

12/22 12/Z Euro shows a Gulf low on 12/29 which tracks to the south of us and could give us a little winter weather. It does not show the low going up the east coast. Still a long ways off...

Are you able to look past hr 168 on hi res? Feel free to post if so. My limited version (free) looked decent at 168 with a nice shot of wintry precip coming through NE TX and E OK.

[Curt]

A couple of AFD's of note to the south and west of TN:


SGF

AFTER LOW MOVES THROUGH...COLD AIR LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SYSTEM BEING SHOWN ON THE GFS AND
ECMWF FOR THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE
A GULF MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW...COULD SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP.

JAN

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER PRETTY STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE GULF TRACKING IT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IN
THE MIDWEST...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBLE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS
STILL A LONG WAY OUT.

LIT

MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF BY DAY 7. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL SEND MOISTURE UP INTO THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT

[Eric]

SGF?  Is that Springfield, MO?