Winter 2011-2012 trend/forecast discussion.

[jmundie]

GFS ensemble mean builds a HUGE east based block, which is starting to move out as our storm comes in Monday. I think, given that the models didn't see that coming, they may try to break it down too soon.

Regardless, after the block moves out, a period of seasonal temperatures in the east, another weaker block builds in, but in a much better location, leading to lower heights/storminess in the se. This would be a good period for a nice ULL event in the southeast 10 days to 2 weeks from now.

If the block building now holds up though, there will not be much respite from the cold.

[jmundie]

Also - really interested in the end of next week, 8-10 days out. There's been a strong signal for several days of something big coming out of the gulf. It appears to depend on whether the teleconnections cooperate, but about half of the ensemble members are showing a sub 996 low pressure coming out of the gulf or east texas, and dumping somewhere between oklahoma and BNA.

I will say right now - there will be an major snow event somewhere in the eastern/midwestern US with this system. the location of the snow is anyone's guess, but there looks to be sufficient cold, and climowise, a big storm coming out of the gulf is going to dump really big accumulations.