Snow for Christmas? Joe Bastardi like it

[SnowSeek]

I have a premium membership to Accuweather and Joe Bastardi and he is absolutly going crazy about the pattern and chill coming the next 3-4 weeks. 

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=4

This is showing some of the weather on the way. 

One thing is almost for sure, it's going to be chilled for Christmas.  Can we get the Moisture?  Will the current weather pattern hold through Jan?  We have 1 piece of the puzzle coming together and that's the cold. 

[tennessee storm09]

great read there snowseek. i hope joe is right, i think he is on to something. i know he gets excited sometimes. but every forum i read i mean every one has it turning very cold after the 20th. or so. peple r talking about it on all of the forums. and with the elnino pattern i see no problem with pecip. as we get into january, thats when i think we capitalized on this pattern.i tell u, we hardly ever get snow around here before christmas, at least good ones our action usually gets going aftr new years. i really think we are in for a good ride this january and part of february. should be fun to keep up with as we ride along this winter.

[SnowSeek]

No doubt, I tell ya though.  I was pretty worried because late november our long range forecast were looking quite warm.  I understand the technical side of it but i can't explain it.  But it was looking like blow torch warm for as long as the eye could see at one point.  GLAD THAT HAS CHANGED.  Most boards are indicating the big chill from 16th onward

[Cameron K.]

CPC December forecast does have december a bit cool. Though I won't hold much stock in accu. The way the GFS looks, however, I'd say for the nextr 7-10 days many of us will be below 50°F.

[Clay]

I have a premium membership to Accuweather and Joe Bastardi and he is absolutly going crazy about the pattern and chill coming the next 3-4 weeks. 

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=4

This is showing some of the weather on the way. 

One thing is almost for sure, it's going to be chilled for Christmas.  Can we get the Moisture?  Will the current weather pattern hold through Jan?  We have 1 piece of the puzzle coming together and that's the cold. 

It's not that I don't think they know what they are doing but they hype everything up and blow everything way out of context. They generate traffic, miss forecasts and sweep all their failure under the carpet or find a scapegoat.

[Eric]

It's not that I don't think they know what they are doing but they hype everything up and blow everything way out of context. They generate traffic, miss forecasts and sweep all their failure under the carpet or find a scapegoat.

 

[Nashville_wx]

 

[Crockett]

Without even reading the link, I'll say that I generally put about as much stock in what Bastardi has to say as I put into the old folk tales about how much its going to snow and how cold its going to be based on how many rings the wooly-worm had, how high or low the hornets built their nests, whether the cows are standing up or lying down and how many fogs we had in August.

But when you look at the projections for the AO, and consider that the PNA is projected to go solidly into positive territory by the middle of the month, how can you not get excited about the second half of December? Modeling has consistently been taking the AO almost off the charts in negative territory over the next couple of weeks. I don't know how long the negative AO and NAO last, or how long the positive PNA lasts once it gets back there, but I like what it all signals for Dec. 15 onward. I still think Dec. 17-20 is the time frame to keep an eye on, though that might turn out to be the storm that sets the stage for things to come closer to Christmas.

I said earlier that I think we have a better chance of a warm Christmas than a white Christmas this year. At the time, I was thinking the pattern would be ready to go into reload mode by the last week of the December. Who knows? I may wind up having to eat those words.

(Edit: Over the last 3 days or so, several of the models have the AO trending back in the other direction after Dec. 16, so who knows how it winds up. It'll be interesting to watch, though.)

[Crockett]

0z and 12z GFS both show a good dose of cold air (-10c line at 850mb hovering along the I-40 corridor) hanging on from about Dec. 21 through Christmas Eve. It may not be a white Christmas, but it should at least FEEL like Christmas.

GFS also paints prolonged periods of snow flurries over parts of the state during the same time frame. (I put about as much stock on snow being shown 300+ hours by the GFS as I put in Bastardi's forecasts.)

GFS wants to track a wave towards the southern Miss Valley by the end of the period. Be interesting to watch future runs to see if this speeds up any and, if so, what it means for us.

[dwagner88]

My personal forecast:
Look for a major cyclonic pattern-changing storm around DEC 15 (I'm hoping for a gulf low and some more snow!) and then look for much below normal temps (but not much precip) after that.

[Crockett]

12z GFS.   

I'm gonna go buy a car! I feel like I need to go take a cold shower after looking at weather p0rn like this.

 

[StormNine]

12z GFS.   

I'm gonna go buy a car! I feel like I need to go take a cold shower after looking at weather p0rn like this.

 

Wow!! I don't think my eyes can handle that. And on Christmas too that is just immoral. 

[Curt]

Wow!! I don't think my eyes can handle that. And on Christmas too that is just immoral. 

Sinful actually. How long will it take to go "poof" ?

[WXHD]

Should have been a  bad boy this year, coal could have come in handy. Oh well, it's not too late to change course.

[Snowmachine]

It'll go poof on the next run of course.