Snowflakes as soon as Thanksgiving week!?!?!

[Snowman]

And thus the winter season begins... 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ALL FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN W GULF
OF MEXICO TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK SUN...AS
THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING
NE AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WELL S AND SW OF THE MID
STATE AT THIS TIME. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE NE DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ACROSS E GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AREA.

BECAUSE BOTH GFS & NAM MODELS FORECAST ONLY VERY LOW PRECIP EFFICIENCY
VALUES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
IN S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E TX THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...WILL MOVE NE AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON
SUN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON...
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF
AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN SE HALF OF MIDSTATE. GFS MODEL MAY BE OVER
DOING THE POPS A TAD THOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
CONTINUING TO EXTEND W ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MON...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...BUT NOT AS HIGH. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE MID STATE MON AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE W GREAT LAKES AREA TUE AND WED AND
THEN STALL OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID STATE TUE...
BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE E OF OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WITH IT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THEN DRY
WEATHER AGAIN IS EXPECTED ON WED AND WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP...THIS TIME IN THE N AND NE THU AND FAR NE THU NIGHT. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...SO WILL HAVE TO PUT A
RAIN /SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN NE. BUT IT SHOULD BE A LOW POP EVENT. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT FOR FRI AND SAT.

[rhea weather]

6Z GFS... 

[Woodvegas]

According to the 11/22 12Z GFS (including the parallel GFS) things continue to look pretty chilly after Thanksgiving into the first week of December with a chance of associated frozen precip. The Euro is not as bullish at this point.

The CPC seems to be on board with the cold...

[Nashville_wx]

00Z Euro is pretty interesting.

[Nashville_wx]

Looks close but thickness do not indicated snow... We have to keep a eye out on that period.

6Z GFS... 

[Clay]

Looks close but thickness do not indicated snow... We have to keep a eye out on that period.

I think he's just noting the trend.

[Woodvegas]

00Z Euro is pretty interesting.

00Z Euro is pretty interesting.

Yeah...850 temps would certainly be cold enough and we could see some flurries the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. According to the 00Z the QPF is light and surface temps are above freezing during that period. After that we will have to wait and see if the Euro locks in the cold like the GFS does.

[Charles L.]

30% chance of rain/snow Thanksgiving night as I just check the OHX site. That lifts my spirits a bit after going to Neyland Stadium last night and watching my team go down.

[snowdog]

30% chance of rain/snow Thanksgiving night as I just check the OHX site. That lifts my spirits a bit after going to Neyland Stadium last night and watching my team go down.

Go Vols!!   

[Charles L.]

Go Vols!!   

Keep whistling...lol. jk

Here is, edited to add the parts people really care about , LOU's AFD:

 

CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

[Nashville_wx]

I would be happy with seeing it fall this early in the season. Not even thinking of accumulations yet.

[ajatwister]

Since the models have been fairly consistent does this mean it could be a possible event even though it is way in voodoo?? it would be nice to see a little snow fall early this year!!

[Sbeagles]

30% chance of rain/snow Thanksgiving night as I just check the OHX site. That lifts my spirits a bit after going to Neyland Stadium last night and watching my team go down.

I was there last night as will but I was in orange and white. neither team looked their best. Maybe we can get a little white stuff to cheer us all up from not so great football seasons.

[Nashville_wx]

Yup RN/SN is in the forecast for BNA. Pretty sweet wouldn't you say! So far this month has been incredibly dry. Also on another note, if I could pay for the 18Z to verify I would. It shows MAJOR major hits to this area. Yes accumulating snowfall, TONS of it.   

[tennessee storm09]

it does look very interesting. but nasvhville _wx does the 0 line represent the freezing line. if it does it needs to get a little colder. but i tell u this much the pattern is setting up just beautiful for us all in tennessee. could be a very fun and exciting winter!