Snowflakes as soon as Thanksgiving week!?!?!

[Eric]

00Z GFS DECEMBER 4TH: (TIME SENSITIVE)

Another 372 hour blizzard.  Ho hum........

[Nashville_wx]

850mb Low and 700mb low both throw up winds from the South. Nothing more than cold rain.



1000/5000 thickness is not even close.




Now if the ULL were stronger we could get a bit more help in the temperature department. Many times Low pressure systems will drag up the warm nose into the lower levels. We all know whats shown is 372 hours away. Just wanted to clear up any misunderstanding to those who are new here.

[dwagner88]

Well, even if the temp profiles are too warm on this one, you still gotta love the pattern, right?

[Nashville_wx]

Yes I do like the pattern but do not think it will sustain itself. I believe December is a draw. The Pacific looks to be changing for the better but as of lately, the entire consus has been flooding with warm Pacific air including Canada.Todays 12Z GFS is showing a pretty good shot of cold air day10-day15.We should keep a eye on this. Moderate Ninos usually produce well below normal precip for the month of December. However we have a active STJ that could phase up and produce a good event.

[Thundersnow]

As is usually the case, getting a good winter event around here is "threading the needle."  All the ingredients have to come together in the right way at the right time for something to unfold.  It's not feasible to look at an event seriously past 5-7 days.

"Pattern recognition" is the name of the game at that range.

[Thundersnow]

 



 

[Clay]

That's so gonna happen, right? 

[Nashville_wx]

Wow as so for the 00Z GFS is coming is cold. Extended is looking super cold with PV coming to this side. If this holds out winter is going to come in at full force. Our best chance at seeing a decent storm is to get the STJ to phase in. Otherwise we are going to see some left over moisture @ 850mb in NW flow fall as snow showers. Really looking to see the Euro tonight as well as the Ensemble data. Split flow in the extended also is showing up with a more ninoish STJ. Give it a couple days as I might actually bite and make some sort of forecast for a decent storm should wee see the STJ jet interact with the the PJ. Per the 00Z Gfs animation below note how long in the far extended we stay BELOW Freezing.














And here the storm is brewing!! Apps take a crush!!!!!!!!!!





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml

[Clay]

Not to mention a few wet flakes for early Black Friday as per the 0Z.

Man, that's cold...

[Nashville_wx]

If this verifies it just goes to show you how fast things can change. If Cross polar flow can establish itself we could see some pretty cold temps for early season.

[Thundersnow]

We always need to keep in mind the cold bias of the GFS.  But, I think some good signs are showing up of a trend toward colder weather.  Stay tuned!

[rhea weather]

This may be the year we get our Gulf Low 

[rhea weather]

Snow showers / flurries on Black Friday?

[dwagner88]

Dang, that 00Z GFS might give me a good thumping of wet snow. Too bad its 14 days out . . .

[Nashville_wx]

12Z Euro






240 hours 12ZEuro.


240 hours 12ZGFS