Snowflakes as soon as Thanksgiving week!?!?!

[ams30721us]

The 06z GFS this morning thinks so. Def. looks like Strong cold front thats been showing up for about a week now to head south around Tuesday of that week and after that cold air looks to move in with some leftover moisture that could produce some flakes. Now of course take this with a grain of salt as it is just one model run but the first within the 180hr GFS (aka seven day range) So we will watch and wait but who knows it is now actually possible to believe this which is kinda cool in itself. Winter is here!! haha

Day Before Thanksgiving (Wednesday)

Day After Thanksgiving ( Friday)


Just some times and things to watch over the next week...haha

[ams30721us]

still looks COLD the second half of Thanksgiving week. Looks like we get a quick cold shot around Wednesday. Then looks as if a stronger front arrives Thanksgiving providing much colder weather for your Black Friday and weekend not to mention maybe a few flurries. Stay Tuned things starting to turn more winter like next week.

12z GFS:
Tuesday:


Wednesday:


Thursday:


Friday:


 

[ams30721us]

WAKE UP EVERYONE:

FROM NWS ATLANTA DISCUSSION:
AFTER SYSTEM PROGGED TO LIFT OUT...STILL SEE ACTIVE PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS AND STRONG
MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATING
LESS THAN 100 J/KG MUCAPE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN THIS PATTERN
IF ISOLD LOW CAPE MDT-HIGH SHEAR SVR STORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT OCCUR...
PARTICULARLY IF SHORT WAVE BECOMES MORE INTENSE. HAVE NOT ADDED
TSRA ATTM. AND ALTHOUGH FCST ONLY GOES OUT UNTIL TUESDAY...12Z
ECMWF DOES SHOW AN INTERESTING /WHITE/ THANKSGIVING FCST. JUST
THOUGHT I WOULD THROW THAT OUT THERE FWIW.
SNELSON

[Snowman]

Haha. Everyone is awake and paying attention. Just need to be conservative this early in the season.  Things do get interesting after early next week though for sure. 

[Reneezelle]

Don't wan to jinx it, but after Ida surfaced I have been SWEARING to people we will see some white stuff SOMETIME around Thanksgiving. The gut feeling hit me like a ton of bricks!!! 

[Charles L.]

Don't wan to jinx it, but after Ida surfaced I have been SWEARING to people we will see some white stuff SOMETIME around Thanksgiving. The gut feeling hit me like a ton of bricks!!! 

I hope you are right.

[Adam]

Me too I just hope we see some few flakes just one or two

[Woodvegas]

Surface temps are above freezing on both the GFS and the Euro (11/17) but 850 temps are below freezing at least for a while when precip is around. Euro shows a low cutting across the southeast which I guess is a cold core low.

[Nashville_wx]

Tho fun to see I would take what we are seeing as a indication that a pattern change is on the way. The question is does this upcoming pattern lock in? My bet is not till Mid December but that does not mean FZ precipitation is out of the question before then. With the hype past 180 hours, model resolution goes down and overall agreement and Ensemble data should be used. The OP euro solution offers a deep trough over the east while the GFS is having a harder time placing its location. Overall there is fair agreement between most OP runs and their ensemble members. Till we get closer it will be hard to place the exact location of the trough shown to dig this way in the midterm. Winter is inching closer and closer, just be patient and all will work out.

[Eric]

Ya'll know I'm not one to jump on the Snow Train prematurely, but looking at the 12Z Euro days 8-10, it looks to position a cut off low of sorts south of the Tennessee Valley putting us Tennessee folks on the "cold" side of the low.  I haven't had time to look at much anything else so I'm not on board.....yet.  But ya'll be sure to save me a seat.   

[Nashville_wx]

As Eric mentioned.

[snowdog]

Wow, eye candy.          

[lyngo]

If our fall pattern is any indicator, we may see more "cut-off" lows traverse our area this coming winter!   

[rhea weather]

00Z GFS DECEMBER 4TH: (TIME SENSITIVE)

[VandyMachine]

Nice, I'd buy that for a dollar.