AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009
REPORTS FROM THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...AS LOW AS THE ALUM CAVE TRAIL AT
ABOUT 3800 FEET. FROM OUR OFFICE WE CAN SEE A LITTLE SNOW ON TOP OF
ENGLISH MOUNTAIN (ABOUT 3500 FEET). SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS AND AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM CHA PUT THE FREEZING
LEVEL AT ABOUT 3500 FEET. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND DOWN TO 2500 FEET
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME
DENDRITE GROWTH...HOWEVER THE LIFT WILL REMAIN SHALLOW AND PREVENT
ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE THE WSW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...AND KEEP THE LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE
FORECAST. DECREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD END ANY PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
