Freeze Watch Issued

[Nashville_wx]

Over the past couple days I have had the concern that the first frost for areas in middle Tn could be this
weekend.Saturday/Sunday night are going to be the coldest of the season with Low in the high 30's. Forecast from NWS have jumped around so I have held off on really making a fuss over this too much. Todays 12Z and 18ZDGEX are showing the areas could drop to the freezing mark. 18Z def came in colder but I will wait until the 00Z run tonight to post that much data. Favored areas are going to have to watch out this weekend. Keep notice that right now the forecast lows from the NWS is around 34-35F Saturday night along the TN/KY border NNE of BNA. Current forecast for lows around BNA are around 37-38F. 

12Z GFS -96 Hours 12UTC Monday.


Then we see the the 18Z does the trend continue into 00Z tonight? We have to wait almost there.


18Z DGEX 90 hours 12UTC Monday


96 Hours



120 Hours

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

Looking at the 00Z GFS, lets look at both Saturday and Sunday Night.

84 Hours - Saturday Night


Nice 1031H



108 Hours - Sunday Night one thing to note is that looking at 850mb temps vs 1000/500 vs actually 2m Temps we see that there is a very shallow layer of cold air. 00Z sounding should indicate this as did the 12Z


1029H is to the NE

[Nashville_wx]

00Z Soundings

84 Hours



108 Hours- Notice from 650mb pretty much down to 1000mb or so that temps are above freezing but a very shallow layer right at the surface.

[Nashville_wx]

Finally they come around

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 52. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

[Charles L.]

OHX is forecasting a low of 32ºF for me Sunday night...and we could even see a few sleet pellets mixed in with the rain we see this weekend. 

[Nashville_wx]

12Z sounding for Sunday

[Eric]

Didn't we already have a thread for this topic?

[Crockett]

Didn't we already have a thread for this topic?

I bet he was leery about the title of the thread changing every day.

[Nashville_wx]

I wanted to make the other thread a open thread for up coming events as well as general discussion. I feel that a new thread needed to be started so people would take notice. Temps will drop into the low-mid 30's and if they hang there long enough sensitive outdoor plans could be in harms way. Crockett models were bouncing around faster than I could change the topic name. I figure the new name will work all the way up into the winter season.  ::bangingheadintowall::

[Cameron K.]

I know this is not good news for the tobacco. My main concern is holding out on freezing(below 32°F) for another month so I can just get a decent wrapper leaf crop. Fortunetly it's small enough that can I rig something up.

[Nashville_wx]

12Z Sounding

[Nashville_wx]

Sunday Night could hit freezing in some areas. Forecast low is 34F. Outlying areas could def flirt with 32 if not some areas dropping below freezing to the NE.

[Nashville_wx]

On another note I am coming in at around 45.6F here. Chilly day for October!

[Charles L.]

On another note I am coming in at around 45.6F here. Chilly day for October!

I am currently at 45.9F and my high has only reached to 46F thus far...nice day.