Winter is about to start

[Curt]

Snowcover is defintely on the increase across the country. This is a good sign for December and I dont think its going anywhere soon. Question is can it be added to? I dont see a ton of big storms in the near future.

[tennessee storm09]

alot of posters are sayiing tonites 00z run will bring back the big winter event around 16 or 17th. i read that i think on eastern weather. time will tell i guess later tonite.

[Crockett]

The 0z GFS did shift the 12/16 storm back south, but only throws a trace of precip our way, plus there's no cold air to work with until after the low shifts to the East Coast.

Overall, the 0z run was awfully bland for the next couple of weeks. The 6z did bring back the cold for the week of Christmas, at least, with snow flurries on 12/22-12/23. That storm on 12/21-12/22 could prove to be VERY interesting.

[bigalpha]

The 0z GFS did shift the 12/16 storm back south, but only throws a trace of precip our way, plus there's no cold air to work with until after the low shifts to the East Coast.

Overall, the 0z run was awfully bland for the next couple of weeks. The 6z did bring back the cold for the week of Christmas, at least, with snow flurries on 12/22-12/23. That storm on 12/21-12/22 could prove to be VERY interesting.

Oh, oh, let me try - tell me if I'm way off.

Looks like the Low starts out in the Gulf and moves up the East coast.  The 0*C line looks like it pushes pretty far south (into the AL/TN border) and stays for a while. 

At this point, it doesn't look like Mid TN gets a lot of precip but that last year, the gulf lows tended to move more NW than what the current GFS is showing.

[Eric]

12z shows poop till Christmas......

[bigalpha]

To compliment:

[Coach B]

Long range (days 6-15) does look cold and dry with no big storms at this point to track.  If we can actually get that cold to verify, however, surely we can get something.  Looks like at least like some clipper potential to me.

[Curt]

Simply amazing that nationally the snow field sits at 54%, whicle a month ago it was 3%. That is a HUGE increase.

[SnowSeek]

How many times is this said a day....

"I don't trust the models 8 days out"

I am trying to limit my scope when looking at anything other then predicting temps.  The setup is awesome if you love cold temps and snow potential for days 8 and beyond.  Predicting what storm may or may not form is silly (but fun) and so unreliable that I have decided to just be patient and see what's cooking as we get closer.  I think were about to see some big time troughing and sustained cold into Christmas.  Will it work out and give us some storms?  Nobody knows but I have to believe that it won't stay dry for forever.  If it does....yet another screw job.  BTW, Didn't we have a screwjob about this sametime last year? Cold temps no moisture for long periods?  That Snow cover is amazing for this time a year. 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[Nashville_wx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1254 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

VALID 12Z WED DEC 16 2009 - 12Z SUN DEC 20 2009

OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN US/ATLANTIC...

A DEEP CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MID-LATE WEEK... UNDERCUTTING A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
BUILDING FROM GREENLAND. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME EVIDENT
THU ONWARD REGARD TO THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED CIRCULATION LOCATION
AND THE RESULTING PATTERN UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THIS PATTERN THAN
THE GFS/UKMET WITH THE CLOSED LOW...ALLOWING A SURFACE HIGH TO
BUILD MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY AREA FRI/SAT THAT PROGRESSES EWD SUN.
THE ECMWF/CMC ALSO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED FORMATION OF A GULF LOW
THAT PUSHES TOWARD THE SE US COAST LATE PERIOD. A QUICK RESPECTIVE
COMPARISON OF THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS OR PAST FEW ECMWF RUNS SHOW
POOR RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THESE FEATURES...LENDING
VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. PREFER TO ACCORDINGLY BLEND HIGHLY
SMOOTHED GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE THAT ESPECIALLY BY LATE
WEEK MINIMIZES DEPICTION OF ANY LOWLY PREDICTABLE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...FINAL HPC PROGS CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE THAT OFFERS SOMEWHAT LOWER MEAN PRESSURES ACROSS
THE E-CENTRAL US IN THE REGION WHERE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FAVOR
POSSIBLE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTS.

[tennessee storm09]

the latest afd out of little rock arkie sounds very interesting too. talks about a clipper type system droping down from the rockies and strengthens as it moves east. saying cold enough to support snow in central and norther part of arkie.   this could slide in to the midsouth.

[Clay]

The 18z is interesting. A snow low for Christmas. The trend is certainly one to watch.

[SnowSeek]

Definatly some things to keep an eye on over the next 2 weeks.

[tennessee storm09]

i am anxious for tonites 0z   on that clipper system . that will be interesting i think.

[tennessee storm09]

what is taking the 00z so long tonite!