Winter is about to start

[Nashville_wx]

Yeah I am sure, look at the zone forecast, updated 8:55PM.

[Clay]

Huh, interesting. They must have just updated it after I first checked.

They've got 28 for me.

[Nashville_wx]

Did you click on Zone forecast?? I saw 28 too earlier as well tho.

[Clay]

Yes I clicked the zone forecast for my neighborhood. They've got 29 for Nashville and 27/28 for the higher elevations above 700ft.

[Curt]

If the 0z GFS holds true (still 5 days out), Houston TX might see accumulating snowfall before anyone in Tennessee and along the east coast for that matter. This particular storm looks alot like the Christmas 2004 storm where several places along the gulf coast saw snow and sleet. This one would miss Tennessee altogether if it pans out.

[ajatwister]

If the 0z GFS holds true (still 5 days out), Houston TX might see accumulating snowfall before anyone in Tennessee and along the east coast for that matter. This particular storm looks alot like the Christmas 2004 storm where several places along the gulf coast saw snow and sleet. This one would miss Tennessee altogether if it pans out.

Wow!!! I was noticing the same thing!! The 0z and the 18z were in agreement of snow falling as far south as Mobile, Alabama five days out... lucky for them but for us the low is passing way to far south...

[Nashville_wx]

Notice the increase in QPF

12z
.

00z



Now lets move on ahead.

Looking at 500mb @ 90 hours you can note the huge ridge all the way up into Alaska. Moving on to 96 you can see the s/w diving into TX. This is going to be the key player.



Now notice @ 102 the L pressure placement in the Gulf. Temps will support snow but as shown we need the Track to move NW. During the past several winters the GFS has moved NW time and time again. Below @ 102 is 2MT. A simple picture that surface temps will be there. Below it is the 00Z GFS Para. run. Congrats in SE Tennessee. At this point out I like where we sit but will retain from throwing any forecast out.








00Z GFS PARA.

[Curt]

Hah love the long term 384hr forecast (0z)for 70+ degree temps after the cool down! Gotta love the 16 day GFS forecast.

[dwagner88]

If its still there on Wednesday I might consider getting excited about this. . . .

[Nashville_wx]

00Z Euro tonight will break everyone heart

[Clay]

00Z Euro tonight will break everyone heart

When does the 0Z Euro roll out again? If I remember correctly, its rather late.

[Cameron K.]

Happy Meteorological Winter Everyone, well in half hour it will be. Been off a lot lately, but I'm gonna try to start posting a bit more often now. I've taken quite an interest in the upcoming Saturday event. Seems like the 0z GFS has cut back a bit on the strength of the cold air being delivered by the Canadian high, but that low forming in gulf looks a bit more interesting now. Not sure if it's that the power of the high being cut back or the low defined as stronger/better structured than in previous runs that has allowed the predicted low to move up coast allotting the moisture creep towards us. At any rate, if the North/Mid Atlantic high stays strong and creeps toward the west a bit, it may force that low to travel more so along in coastal states rather than offshore. On the other hand if the wall of high pressure over the Midwest has a little more mercy that would help us in our favor too.  Just giving a little and trying the analyze the situation.  

[dwagner88]

Wow, major temp bust in progress here. I'm in the 20's for the first time this year! 29.5 and dropping IMBY right now, with 87% humidity no less.

[Clay]

Well since other models are starting to catch on to this if we can get a little more ensemble support then we may have ourselves a snowlow. The location of that high over the Atlantic is classic for inducing the GFS NW trend.

[Nashville_wx]

Temps sitting at a nice 28.8F as of 12:30AM. Also clay when looking at Ensemble data remember that there is a SE bias on the GFS, more so than the OP and that the members do not run at the resolution as the OP. So when we see some somethings stand out on the OP it may take the members time to adjust. So lets see what tonight's members show. You are right tho the High pressure is sitting in a great location!