Winter is about to start

[Slowmodem]

WDEF (Chattanooga) Weatherman Patrick Core made his winter prediction:

http://wdef.com/news/patrick_cores_annual_winter_weather_forecast/11/2009

[Thundersnow]

OHX has rain and snow showers in the forecast for parts of the area on Wednesday night.

[Clay]

What a contrast in temperatures today. Many places that started out in the upper 20s are going to top out near 70º for a high. 

[dwagner88]

I see KBNA finally made it below freezing two nights ago. KCHA had its first official freeze last night. I had mine way back on 10/17 or so. It looks as though places like KATL and KGSP may have record late freezes if the models are correct about tempering next week's cold air. I bet if you look at years with uncharacteristically late first freezes there will be a corresponding negative correlation to winter snowfall. It would be interesting to see this data, if somebody less lazy than me wanted to dig it up.

[Clay]

My latest forecast from OHX:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.08351146584746&lon=-86.79473876953125&site=ohx&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[Clay]

We've got some very interesting temps this evening. Places exposed to gusty wind don't radiationally cool. Check out the temperatures differences across the Nashville area. The stations I circled are sited properly as far as I can tell. I don't think I've ever seen such a stark temperature contrast as a result of radiational cooling only. Wow!

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[shooting70]

Hi everyone.I read an interesting article a little while ago. I would like for everyone to google: larry cosgrove weather examiner and check out his weatheramerica newsletter and let me know what everyone thinks about it.Feedback would be great.Thoughts comments....

[tennessee storm09]

just read that, thanx shooting. all i can say is wow! it could be a very snowy n cold winter for our area to say the least.  people need to read that, its awsome.

[shooting70]

I have a friend named edberry.He used to work for dodgecity ks,but went to work somewhere in houstontx.I think for a private company.Been trying to get in touch with him.Anyways,he always has told me, "that for the central and east to have a cold pattern,u need to have the ridge out west to about 140degrees west longitude". It makes sense.The typhoon will have something to do with the pattern also,but i remember distinctly that back in october when we had all those typhoons in west pacific,it buckled the jetstream and the northern plains and west had verrrrrry cold temps,some place below zero for october.It got colder here,but not like that.Just thought i would make light into that.

[tennessee storm09]

ne one really know when the true artic air comes down to our area. thats what we need a good shot of cold artic air to lock in wwith all these parade of storms coming in from our sw. then we will be in buisness.

[shooting70]

The thing that concerns me about the upcoming cold air is that it may be the west that gets the brunt of it,mainly because of the ridge placement.The ridge may be too far west,allowing the east to be warm.Placement is everything and timing.We may get a glancing blow,but right now,doesnt look like we will get real cold like first thought. ::shrug::Models keep pushing back the cold air for us.

[Clay]

I think you just illustrated a point you've yet to realize. The models don't have a very good  handle on the medium and long range now, especially the GFS. I don't think it's necessarily good to jump to conclusion upon review of a few conflicting GFS runs. The overall pattern is good.

[tennessee storm09]

i hope ur right clay, think eventually cold will win out. like shooting said ridge placement may be a little west right now. man i love the storm pattern shapping up. i swear if we can get some good cold air in place. man we might get tired of this winter, serious. we may have our hands full. i say bring it.

[Clay]

i hope ur right clay, think eventually cold will win out. like shooting said ridge placement may be a little west right now. man i love the storm pattern shapping up. i swear if we can get some good cold air in place. man we might get tired of this winter, serious. we may have our hands full. i say bring it.

You're a funny guy. 

[tennessee storm09]

really clay, seriously. do u really think we are facing a pretty good winter this year to get good snow. i really like the pattern shaping up.