Winter is about to start

[tennessee storm09]

thanx nashville, u and others have really helped me out on winter weather. i got the severe weather pretty well down pat. i think. looking forward to reading yalls expert winter thoughts the upcoming weeks. i really think it could be a very interesting winter, and its fixing to start.  show time.

[Clay]

thanx nashville, u and others have really helped me out on winter weather. i got the severe weather pretty well down pat. i think. looking forward to reading yalls expert winter thoughts the upcoming weeks. i really think it could be a very interesting winter, and its fixing to start.  show time.

You will learn a lot this winter, and I will learn everything I forgot since last winter! 

[Nashville_wx]

Looking at 108 hours you can notice the cut off low in the South West and trough coming down through the northern plains. This will miss the ULL and will move on ahead as shown here with the wave moving east. Now at 126 hours the ULL moves into Western Texas with another ULL low north of the Great lakes. Energy will rotate around and you can see a weaker ull SW of Memphis. We need the northern stream to come down and grab the ULL at the correct time. Since timing is very hard with this future solutions will continue to change until we get closer and the sampling of s/w out of canada with be better handled. Past this we continue to see a blocking pattern to the west. Could be the best start to Dec in ALONG time or not. Sucks not knowing the answer but thats what keeps it interesting.
 

[shooting70]

Happy thanksgiving everyone. Ive heard on other forums that after the 4th,things should start ramping up.It takes so much timing to get anything around here.Nashville,u think this storm for midweek is about dead in the water,or is there a legitimate chance still with it? ::shrug::If the ULL hangs back west,i think it is definitely not going to happen for us.Its taking a while to break down the trough out west i guess thats the reason why the cold air thats forecasted over the next week or so isnt sure if it will make it here or not.

[Clay]

Happy thanksgiving everyone. Ive heard on other forums that after the 4th,things should start ramping up.It takes so much timing to get anything around here.Nashville,u think this storm for midweek is about dead in the water,or is there a legitimate chance still with it? If the ULL hangs back west,i think it is definitely.Its taking a while to break down the trough out west i guess thats the reason why the cold air thats forecasted over the next week or so isnt sure whats going to happen.

I agree and right now I don't thing the GFS has its head around the timing for next week. The slightest tweak in timing means a lot of redone forecasts.

[shooting70]

I meant to say IF THE ULL HANGS BACK WEST LIKE PROGGED TO DO,THEN THIS STORM IS A MISS IN TERMS OF WINTRY WX. I think

[Clay]

Oh my bad. I misread your post.

[shooting70]

Im ready for a more wintry pattern around here.it would be nice.Just something to track and root for would be ok.Its been a while around here.

[Charles L.]

Yesterday morning on our way to Mt. Juliet, around Bethpage we ran into some sleet and flurries. Wasn't much, nut it got you into the feel for winter.

[Woodvegas]

11/27 12Z Euro shows a Miller A type event next week with the low tracking over east TN. If temps were colder this would be a nice snow for somebody in the southeast but it looks like mostly rain at the moment for us. Hopefully, we will get another one of these in the heart of winter. We may get a little wrap around snow Wednesday night and even some light snow the following Saturday if the Euro is right. In any event the model shows cold from Dec. 3rd until at least Dec. 7th.

11/27 12Z GFS also has the above mentioned system but has the low tracking much further to the east. It gives us a little light snow after the rain but surface temps are pretty much above freezing during the event.

Good start to the winter IMHO.

[tennessee storm09]

joe lundberg  a met on accuweather said on his blog today. that places that dont hardly ever have a white christmas will get a white christmas this year, very interesting statement.

[Clay]

Just look at all the cold air towards the end of the GFS.

[Nashville_wx]

Clay after this next storm, things will move in our favor with the 00Z Euro tonight shows fantastic blocking in the Pacific. Its hard to tell but this is the best shot I have seen for early December in along time.

[Snowman]

OHX mentioning Wednesday night for possibly a little bit of the frozen stuff.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
H5 WAVE OVER EXTREME NW GULF HAS LITTLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. IT
SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE AREA SAT NGT. THE OTHER SYSTEM IS A COLD
FRONT FORMING IN THE PLAINS AND IT IS DUE INTO THE AREA SUN PM/SUN NGT.
RESULT IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SUN PM TO MON AM. LAYERED MOISTURE
THINS OUT QUICKLY ON MON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT THOUGHT TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON MON/MON NGT. THEN A STRONG H5 LOW...CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY SEWD THROUGH CA WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TUE NGT. THIS WILL GENERATE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WHICH MOVES NEWD TUE NGT AND WED ACROSS THE GULF AND SERN STATES.
THIS PUSHES RAIN BACK INTO THE MIDSTATE TUE NGT WITH A COLD FRONT
JUST TO THE NORTH...FROM MO TO OH. RAIN TAPERS OFF ON WED WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A MIX
OF RA/SN LATER WED NGT AND THU AM. NO SGFNT ACCUM IS EXPECTED ATTM.
SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH LITTLE SGFNT WX
EXPECTED.

CPC PROGS 6-10 DY AND 8-14 DY SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP.

MRX also mentioning the possibility of a minor winter event, possibly accumulating event for higher elevations.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST TODAY
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST FLOW AT 850 MBS AND
MAX SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS
MOS HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALTHO MAINLY SRN AND CENTRAL AREAS. FAVORED COOLER
MOS MINS IN NE TN AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA...BUT MILDER MINS IN
SRN AND WRN AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY-CAT POPS.

RIDGING WILL GAIN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY BEFORE NEW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT IN
ALIGNMENT ON HOW MUCH PHASING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH. GFS SHOWS MORE OF A MILLER-A TYPE CYCLOGENEIS WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THEN RIDING NORTHEAST AND
INTENSIFYING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A FARTHER WEST
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOP. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS VARYING OUTCOMES.

WILL FOLLOW GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOW. GFS SHOWS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AS
CYCLONGENESIS INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CALL FOR LIKELY POPS. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POSSIBLY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

[Snowman]

MEG is also on board with mentioning the potential for some of thier northern areas to possibly see some wintry precip. However, they will leave forecast as all rain for now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
442 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

...Snippet from Long Discussion...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES IT DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
THE 00Z GFS WAS FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS HAS TENDED
FURTHER NORTH ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE 00Z ECMWF.
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS. SPREAD A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THERMAL FIELDS AS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME DETERMINING IF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AND
WILL LEAVE AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW.

DRY AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER AS COLD CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION.