Winter is about to start

[Clay]

Basically Eastern US troughs will more likely form with a neg. NAO.

[bigalpha]

So a trough is more likely to bring cold air and precipitation together, thus giving us  day?

[Clay]

Cold air but not necessarily precip.

[tennessee storm09]

should and hopefully set the stage for the cold foundation. then for what i am hearing in long range stuff on other forums the southern jet gets pretty active. then comes the fun as it looks like the cold could pretty much lock in place for a while.

[tennessee storm09]

alot of mets think this winter will be   alot of miller a patterns. hope it tunrs out that way.

[bigalpha]

Miller A patterns start in the Gulf and move North, right?  That's good news for us, right?

[tennessee storm09]

correct me if i am wrong, but i think miller a  basically runs east of the apps or out to the atlantic. and yea sometimes they do form in the gulf and most important it would be very good for us if that were to happen.  so bring it!

[Thundersnow]

Miller A patterns start in the Gulf and move North, right?  That's good news for us, right?

They form in the Gulf, cut northeast, and then tend to hug the East Coast, bringing big snows to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  They can bring big snows to the Southeast also... especially the further east you go.  I would say those storms bring snows to the western half of TN maybe half the time.  East TN tends to be more favorably located for them.  But, it's all about the track as always.

Superstorm '93 was a Miller A.

[Nashville_wx]

Well you are not going to get the "cold" from the NAO going negative. The key when looking at a -nao is the overall 500mb circulation. Cold shots can be very short lived when blocking is not strong. We want a extended period of block so that we can lock the pattern in on the east side of us. NW flow is where our cold air comes from due do our latitude. Our temperature is more reflected from the PNA. Zonal air is Pacific air which is usually modified.You can have a full longitude trough or increased heights out west with NW flow into our area. There are so many variables right now its hard to say whats going on.

 The overall picture for the beginning of next week has changed with a 500mb cut off low not catching on to the northern Jet. This sit over the SW and gets picked up on the next impulse diving down. The shown Low pressure track is pretty good but the cold air is lacking. Overall ULL are hard to forecast so I believe we can all be happy enough to sit back and watch. Overall we have 2 days of watching before we can begin to latch on to a threat. Yes I am thinking snow in the next 15 days here.

[Nashville_wx]

Here is the depicted Gulf Low. I chose to bring you the 00z ensemble mean. Ahh so much to work with, no picture has been painting, weather is fun

[Curt]

AFD Memphis-hard to believe we could be on the cold side of the storm this early in the year.Welcome to a nino winter! Happy Thanksgiving!

MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...IN THE FORM OF
AN UPPER LOW...IS NOW FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...MUCH COLDER AIR
IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE MID SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO WORK OUT AND
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WINTER WEATHER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

[WeatherRocker]

I see no snow, but definitely feel the cold.  Too bad that the cold couldn't stick around for Sunday/Monday!

[Nashville_wx]

Things are really starting to look good in the medium/long range.

[tennessee storm09]

what r u seeing nasvhville wx,  ur getting me excited. i cant get ne excess to long range models

[Nashville_wx]

Well in simple terms, it is becoming more likely that a Deep PV will drp osouth into Canada while the Increasing PNA will develop a strong ridge out west with a undercutting STJ. In simple terms hello split flow. Timing is everything and with a active stj and cold air being shunted in this direction it will only be a matter of time. That is that things continue to progress forward. Monday of next week will be a exciting time, models are going to bring joy.