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Do not worry as I believe this year is going to be epic. Things are finally starting to change in the extended period as well.Today has been a PITA tho because the 12Z GFS looks wacky as the OP and its member are not wanting to agree. Hop on the wild train of model madness. Its going to be this way for the next 2 weeks. Nuff said till the 12Z Euro comes out.
TNZ002-004-019-021-049-052-054-088>092-170500-WEST TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSMEMPHIS INTL DRIZZLE 47 44 90 W9 29.95SNWS MEMPHIS N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/AJACKSON LGT RAIN 52 50 93 W13 29.90RDYERSBURG CLOUDY 50 45 81 W12 29.91SUNION CITY CLOUDY 51 50 97 W12 29.86FHUNTINGDON CLOUDY 53 51 93 W10 29.87SLEXINGTON CLOUDY 60 59 97 S7 29.85SAVANNAH CLOUDY 58 57 96 S6 29.88$$TNZ008-025-027-028-033-062-065-066-170500-NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSNASHVILLE CLOUDY 60 53 77 S15 29.90FDICKSON CLOUDY 59 54 82 SE7 29.87FPORTLAND N/A 57 50 77 SE5 29.91FCLARKSVILLE LGT RAIN 58 55 90 E7 29.87FSMYRNA CLOUDY 61 53 74 S3 29.92FMURFREESBORO CLOUDY 60 52 75 S3 29.92LIVINGSTON CLOUDY 61 43 51 S3 29.95FCROSSVILLE CLOUDY 54 42 64 CALM 29.97F$$TNZ061-075-076-078-094-096-097-170500-SOUTH MIDDLE TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSLEWISBURG CLOUDY 57 54 88 SE5 29.91FFAYETTEVILLE N/A 57 50 78 S5 29.93WINCHESTER CLOUDY 59 48 67 E7 29.94MCMINNVILLE CLOUDY 53 49 86 CALM 29.94FCOLUMBIA CLOUDY 62 53 72 SE3 29.88F$$TNZ017-018-042-046-047-170500-NORTHEAST TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSTRI CITIES CLEAR 52 41 66 SW5 30.00F$$TNZ012-013-036-069-073-074-170500-CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSKNOXVILLE PTCLDY 52 44 74 CALM 29.97FOAK RIDGE CLEAR 48 44 86 CALM 29.99F$$TNZ083-085-099-170500-SOUTHEAST TENNESSEECITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSCHATTANOOGA MOCLDY 51 46 83 CALM 29.97S
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD139 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009VALID 12Z WED NOV 25 2009 - 12Z SUN NOV 29 2009THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELSWITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION...SOONCE AGAIN RELIED HEAVILY ON ITS MASS FIELDS TO CONSTRUCT THEPRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/22DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS A MORE AMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE 12Z/21 ECENSEMBLE MEAN...SO THE TWO BLENDED...PARTICULARLY AT THE LATERTIME RANGES...SHOULD AFFORD A MORE STABLE FORECAST. THE GFS...GEMGLOBAL...AND UKMET CANNOT AGREE ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OFTHE CRITICAL WAVE OVER THE EAST BY DAYS 5 AND 6...SO ARE NOTESPECIALLY USEFUL FOR THIS FORECAST....UPDATED PRELIMS AND AFTN FINALS ARE BASED ON 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3AND 4 AND ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS DAYS 5-7.THERE IS GOOD MODELAGREEMENT DAYS 3 AND 4 WED/THU AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES NEWD IN THEGREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A STRONG DIGGING SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWDTHRU THE DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS AND RESULTS IN FORMING ANOTHERSTRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL MS/LOWER OHVALLEY REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN RAINY CONDITIONSACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTASIN MN AND WRN WI. SNOW CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IA/ILINTO IN/OH/KY AND NRN TN LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ANDPORTIONS OF SRN APPLCHNS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ISTHE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL ASTHE MID LEVEL CLOSES OFF IN THIS REGION.DETAILS FOR DAYS 5-7 BECOME MORE DIFFICULT AND CONFIDENCE ISLESSENED AS TO THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF A CLOSED OFF MID LEVELCENTER AS IT MOVES EAST AND NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS ANDNEWD. OP MODELS 00Z/06Z GFS/UKMET/GFSP/ECMWF ALL HAVE A MORE SRLYTRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAN PRIOR RUNS WHILE CMC ANDENS MEANS OF GFS AND ECWMF TAKE A MID LEVEL CENTER 200-250 NMFARTHER NORTH. STRONG DYNAMICS/AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THECENTER INDICATE A THREAT OF CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL NEAR ITS TRACK.THE SRN MOST SOLUTIONS ARE ACROSS VA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC BORDERAND CONSIST OF 06Z GFS AND 00Z/06Z GFSP RUNS. LAGGED AVERAGEFORECASTS OF THE PAST 4 RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF ALONG WITH AN 8MEMBER COMBINED LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF THESE MODELS INDICATE AMID LEVEL LOW CENTER FARTHER NWD OVER NY TO LAKE ERIE. THIS IS APREFERED HPC SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND IS DEPICTED WELL BY GFS ANDECMWF ENS MEANS. THIS RESULTS IN A SNOW THREAT ACROSS FRIDAYACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY/ NWRN MTN PORTIONS OF WV/VA/MD ANDINTO WRN NEW ENG LATE FRI WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLC ANDNORTHEAST/NEW ENG COASTS. A MORE SWD TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL CENTERWOULD SHIFT THE COLDER PCPN TYPE FARTHER SWD. DEEPENING SFC LOWOFF THE NEW ENG COAST WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OFTHE EAST FROM GA NWD FRI AND SAT.PARALLEL GFSP 00Z/06Z RUNS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THE MID LEVEL ANDHAVE THE SRN MOST TRACK OF ALL MODELS. SFC LOW INDICATINGPRESSURES AS LOW AS 975 MB OFF CAPE COD WITH INLAND HIGH WIND ANDCOASTAL STORM CONDITIONS. 12Z GFSP IS WEAKER THAN PRIOR RUNS BUTSTILL THE FARTHEST SOUTH TRACK AND HAS RAISED ITS SFC PRESSURE15MB OFF THE NEW COAST COMPARED TO ITS PRIOR RUN. THIS WILL BE AGOOD TEST FOR THIS MODEL AS IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REPLACETHE CURRENT GFS MID DEC.
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Topic: Winter is about to start (Read 23887 times)
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