Winter is about to start

[Nashville_wx]

12Z EURO says hello with next weeks feature. The H500 low depicted has been shifting around a bit as today it is further East. 540 thickness actually flirts in NW TN as cooling under the Low could suport some type of frozen precip. These are always fun to track and will get ever better once winter starts.

120hours


144 hours

[Nashville_wx]

And now of course the 18Z Gfs comes out with this Let the model madness begin

[Nashville_wx]

Blocking to the west and blocking in the east Atlantic.

[snowdog]

11/15 18z GFS was a little cool in the extended.        

[Clay]

I was indeed. Trough all the way through the end of the forecast period.

[Snowman]

More evidence that it is mid November...

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS LOCATED ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE POPS
RAPIDLY BECOME CATEGORICAL TOWARD MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO AND RAPIDLY OCCLUDE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY SWINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A BAND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED FOR
A TIME BEFORE THE OCCLUDED LOW SENDS STRATOCU AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-40. A POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS ONLY REACHING +1 OR +2C. EVEN A
SUPERADIABATIC PROFILE EQUATES TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE SURFACE. FOR
NOW DID GO WITH UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC. IF THIS SUPERADIABATIC PROFILE DOES PAN OUT...THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH SUB FREEZING AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND AN
INVERSION AROUND 800 MB COULD MEAN A COUPLE ICE PELLETS MIXED IN
WITH THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF JONESBORO AND
DYERSBURG.

From Memphis AFD.

[Charles L.]

Here is just a small portion of this morning's AFD out of MEG...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS   
CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH...TEMPERATURES   
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WENT TOWARDS THE COLDER 00Z METMOS FOR 
TEMPERATURES. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES...20 TO 40 PERCENT...ALONG AND 
NORTH OF I-40 WITH UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY RAINFALL 
WILL BE LIGHT AND STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL 
PROFILES SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MO/AR STATE LINE DURING THIS 
TIME FRAME AS WARM LOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S 
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM.

[ams30721us]

More signs the cold looks to return to the East during Thanksgiving Week...

[Snowman]

Looks quite chilly!  Not looking forward to those chilly 38 degree rain storms during the winter.   

[Nashville_wx]

Looks quite chilly!  Not looking forward to those chilly 38 degree rain storms during the winter.   

Do not worry as I believe this year is going to be epic. Things are finally starting to change in the extended period as well.
Today has been a PITA tho because the 12Z GFS looks wacky as the OP and its member are not wanting to agree. Hop on the wild train of model madness. Its going to be this way for the next 2 weeks. Nuff said till the 12Z Euro comes out.

[Nashville_wx]

This is pretty crazy looking! Impressive what type of cooling a ULL with provide you with esp if it is strong.

[bigalpha]

This is pretty crazy looking! Impressive what type of cooling a ULL with provide you with esp if it is strong.

I'm horrible at reading these maps for some reason --- but this map is especially confusing for my measly brain to interpret.

[Clay]

Why can't we have this low in January??

[Charles L.]

Because Mother Nature hates us here in the Southeast Clay, you should know this by now. I guess a few of us are still in denial. 

[tennessee storm09]

be nice if it was january, but this mite be the pattern setter for this upcoming winter. weak to moderate elnino. could be interesting winter. especially with a split flow develops. storm track should be pretty much in our favor this winter with storms developing in the four corners and moving east.