Winter is about to start

[Curt]

Temperatures by Sybil apparently.  Welcome to Tennessee autumn.

Sad, the youngin's may not know who sybill is, not that you and I are old either.

BTW-I have never seen the leaves turn so quickly as this Fall. The cold nights last weekend really did a number on them. It seems that the reds are much brighter than past years.

[Thundersnow]

I noticed this too.  It seems like the change has accelerated just over the last two days.

[snowdog]

Doesnt look like we get another cold shot any time soon.  I guess old man winter will let Fall have its turn for a while. 

[Curt]

Haloween weekend has the potential to be cold with possible low temps in the 20's statewide.

[Nashville_wx]

Looks like the Pacific is putting a hold cool air in the extended. Check out this strong closed low over the SW. Heights East of the low are pumped up.At 96 hours you can see blocking centered over Florida. At 120 hours we see a fully phased system which is to say pretty bad as! Also below is the 00Z 8-10 day ensemble mean.


 

[Nashville_wx]

[snowdog]

Its trying to build in the west.  Come on you can do it!!!

[Nashville_wx]

Look what the 12Z GFS has to say.....  Pretty nice closed low.


66hours



60hours


66hours

[Thundersnow]

Cold core low... trying to squeeze out some wet flakes maybe?

[Crockett]

After a short run in positive territory in early November, it looks like the NAO and AO may go back into negative territory after the first week or so of November. Maybe we can finally work on getting some cold weather in here.

[snowdog]

Wow 06z today shows some frigid temps in the long range. 

[Thundersnow]

Wow 06z today shows some frigid temps in the long range. 

No kidding... it shows a core of <-20C 850 MB temps diving into Minnesota at 276 hours.  Temperature profiles look more like January than November.

But, that's a long ways off, and it's the 6Z model, yet even the 0Z last night was showing some shots of colder air coming down, but not that cold.

The rollercoaster model game begins. 

It will no doubt be different on the 12Z.

That's getting into mid-November at that point, so a couple of cold snaps will be due anyway.

[Curt]

12z GFS actually keeps the cold, but not smokin' crack like the 6z. The overall long term pattern looks much more representative of fall than what we have seen lately, with some cool-cold shots on the way. I like the sign at the GOM that says "Closed for Business", well at least for a few days anyways.

[Charles L.]

I got down to 32.8F here for a short time this morning and a Frost Advisory is in effect for parts of Middle TN tonight...

[Nashville_wx]

Yeah I dropped down to around 34F last night.