Winter is about to start

[Coach B]

I have to wonder how cold it gets there in January if its like that now. I would love to go there for a few days just to see what that would be like.

They have some pretty wild swings in the weather.  I have some friends who are doing mission work in Lewistown, MT right now.  Obviously, it can get VERY cold, however, they also have some long dry periods throughout the year.  Even have some fairly mild and long snowless streaks in winter. 

[Thundersnow]

From what I have noticed before, the northern Rockies and even northern and central plains will get some of their big blizzards and snowstorms in the Fall.  Once into winter, things will tend to be more stable but cold there with occasional moderate (sometimes heavy) snow events.  But, I remember some big October blizzards making the news out that way before.

I'm not in a hurry for it to blast into winter here yet.  Let's just enjoy the mild to cool October weather.  The wintry weather will come later.

[StormNine]

  lows in the low 40's now in West KY Mon/Tuesday night.  Still cool highs but overnight it looks like the cold may of been overestimated by the models don't worry that won't be the first or the last time that will happen.  Probably has to do with clouds or brisk winds on why lows don't fall that much.

 Good thing is that some farmers may still have crops and we don't need a really early freeze to destroy them.  But I also don't like a freeze to occur real late in November either because it keeps the insects around longer and delays the foliage.

[Nashville_wx]

Well its time to watch something new everyone. Looking into the mid-long term we are starting to see signals that could point to a cold outbreak the will be able to dig and have the SE ridge displaced east. PAC looks to hold good blocking with ridging extending into Washington and above normal heights east off the coast. This would promote a +PNA signal. Also look at the Atlantic. Just now starting to come in place so of course things can and will change but its the next thing to watch here. Overall its important to watch the overall pattern to look for clues to winter storm tracks.


8-10 Day 500mb Mean



Also notethe flow here @ 168 hours on the Euro




Todays 12Z Ensemble package actually supports this and has some member stronger than
the OP run. Looks pretty impressive at this point.

[Nashville_wx]

Temps are once again nice outside at well.

[Curt]

Looking like frost and freeze warnings will fly at the end of the week/next weekend, unless models pull back. Climatology is getting better and better for frost though.

[Nashville_wx]

Well looking at Today 12Z models it looks like we could see a pretty good punch of cold air. This is worth keeping a eye on. There is actually some QPF that falls after the 0C 850mb line comes through but thicknesses are marginal. Once could stray to say that it would not be impossible to see a wet flake or some type of FZ precip fall as what depicted today.

12Z OP GFS

Looking at 120 hours in we see that we have basicly zonal 500mb heights over TN.


 As we progress into 132 hours we see that the axis is to our west a bit but heights have not been pumped up ahead of this because positive tilt so far is enabling it to dig.


Once we get to 144 hours we start to see WNW flow @ 500mb and into 156 as NW flow becomes stronger. Also below is 850mb flow.





Looking into todays Euro @ 12Z we see the progression. None the less look for Thursday night into Friday Evening to be pretty cool with lows possibly supporting light frost in areas that are favored.





Also we have the 12Z GFS Ensemble package showing 1000/500mb thicknesses.












 

[Nashville_wx]

Here you have it. There is no forecast discussion on the weekends.

[snowdog]

Thanks for all the maps and discussion Nashville_Wx...I enjoy it. 

[Nashville_wx]

Morning everyone, looks like I got down to 44.2F here last night.

[Clay]

45º here.

[Clay]

More first freeze prospects as per the 18z GFS.

[dwagner88]

More first freeze prospects as per the 18z GFS.

Wow. That is a sick storm in the N. Pacific. 916 millibars? What is that, like a strong cat 3 cane equivalent?

[Clay]

Wow. Nice find. I completely missed that. 

[Nashville_wx]

Maybe this is better here or in the winter forum. If this needs to be moved be my guest
Last nights 00Z model runs looks pretty freaking sweet. Todays 12ZGFS is now running. This is going to be something fun to watch. Lets find out where we are at now.

00Z Euro

120 Hours you can see the 0C line south of pretty much all of tn riding up the Apps. At 700mb its apparent that
moisture is to the NW of Nashville. By 144 hours you can see RH @ 700mb rise. I am eager to see todays 12Z run of the Euro

120 Hours



144 hours




After a look at the Euro lets look at the 12Z Gfs OP run. Lets start out at 102 hours. You can see s/w energy coming down out of the eastern dakotas with a vort max right on the border. Looking into to our area we can see that the axis is still positive which is allowing the s/w to the NNW to dig . Then looking @ 114 hours we see the energy riding the western side of the trough... But look,  we see a cutoff low trying to form along the N KY border.







Now lets look at the GFS 12Z @ 00Z since it is the same time as the 00Z Euro @ 144 hours. Below is the Euro shown at 00Z Saturday.










Now looking at the 700mb RH the Euro spreads much more west into our area vs today's 12Z GFS. We will look at the 12Z Euro when it becomes available and comment more. I may be biting on the fact that some higher elevations of the Northern Plat  could see a mixed flakes as boundry layer is marginal but could support it. 850mb temp fall below -0C so its really a watching game.

00Z Saturday GFS


00Z Saturday Euro ( Remember we are looking at 700mb RH)