Winter is about to start

[Nashville_wx]

180 hrs isn't voodoo land... 

But remember 180 hours is right at the point where model resolution changes. Also look here at the 12Z ensemble

[Clay]

Lol, I know. I don't actually expect that to pan out.

[Nashville_wx]

Lol, I know. I don't actually expect that to pan out.

If it can happen it will happen, that is weather. Today 12Z euro @ 168 hours is wanting to bring sub 0C temps @ 850mb shortly after. Timing of models is somewhat different but the overall theme is to bring the coldest air of the season in but while side of the axis will we be on. Below is some model data that I am watching right now. The big question is do we see sub 0C temps @ 850mb and what do overall surface temps reach. Such temps could warrant a light frost or overall cause concern. Lets see how this overall plays out as I feel this is the first system that I am going to start logging for the fall/winter season. This could be a big transition but overall the next 40-50 days will be pretty variable I feel as we start to lock in on a more weak ninoish pattern.

[Nashville_wx]

CMC is really agressive with this.

12Z   180Hours




12Z   192 Hours




Upper Level





And last nights 00Z Ensemble @ 192 hours

[Nashville_wx]

12Z GFS Ensembles.......

180 Hours




192 Hours

[Thundersnow]

The little system that rolled through yesterday which brought the rain was typical of El Nino patterns, I think.

An active southern storm track.

The question for the upcoming winter will be whether we can get those systems to phase with cold air support.  A Nino too strong can limit cold air intrusions.  But, a mild Nino can make some interesting things happen.

[Nashville_wx]

The little system that rolled through yesterday which brought the rain was typical of El Nino patterns, I think.

An active southern storm track.

The question for the upcoming winter will be whether we can get those systems to phase with cold air support.  A Nino too strong can limit cold air intrusions.  But, a mild Nino can make some interesting things happen.

I am not really worried about the strength of the NINO this year as I believe it will be weak and start to fade as the winter progresses. Depending on where temps warm and in what region they are in, the area of tropical forcing and other signals in the pacific will have a effect on the overall PDO state this winter. I can bet that during winters with above average snowfall the PDO state was overall N to + .

[Nashville_wx]

Btw accuweather has a low of 38F for BNA Monday 12th. And it is heavily weighted right off the OP run of the GFS

[Crockett]

I am not really worried about the strength of the NINO this year as I believe it will be weak and start to fade as the winter progresses.

That's a scenario that could certainly lead to a memorable winter in the Mid-South.

[Crockett]

By the way, just to get everyone in the mood, here's the view from Togwotee Pass (near Jackson Hole, Wyo.) earlier today:



http://www.alltravelcams.com/viewer.php?camcategory=JACKSON%20HOLE&camname=Togwotee%20Pass&campic=http://www.togwoteelodge.com/webcam/netcam.jpg&sponsor=Togwotee%20mountain%20Lodge&sponsorurl=http://www.togwoteelodge.com/&camwidth=640&camheight=480

[Clay]

I can't WAIT! 

[Nashville_wx]

By the way, just to get everyone in the mood, here's the view from Togwotee Pass (near Jackson Hole, Wyo.) earlier today:



http://www.alltravelcams.com/viewer.php?camcategory=JACKSON%20HOLE&camname=Togwotee%20Pass&campic=http://www.togwoteelodge.com/webcam/netcam.jpg&sponsor=Togwotee%20mountain%20Lodge&sponsorurl=http://www.togwoteelodge.com/&camwidth=640&camheight=480

Have been there many times. Almost took a job at JHMS as a instructor.

[Snowman]

Anyone else see Davis's 7day. He has 55 for a high next Monday. 

[Sbeagles]

Anyone else see Davis's 7day. He has 55 for a high next Monday. 

Its going to be chilly thats for sure. 55 was my high yesterday. I'm ready for some highs in the lower 30's!!

[Thundersnow]

Anyone else see Davis's 7day. He has 55 for a high next Monday. 

Ron Howes showed 70, so he apparently isn't quite biting what the model is saying.

Dan Thomas on WSMV is showing a high of 61.

55... 61... 70.  That's a pretty wide variance from the big three affiliates in town.