Winter is about to start

[Thundersnow]

The latest CPC long range outlooks show more of the cold air pouring into the Rocky Mountain West while we see warmer conditions with a ridge over the East.

[Nashville_wx]

The latest CPC long range outlooks show more of the cold air pouring into the Rocky Mountain West while we see warmer conditions with a ridge over the East.

Yup this first blast of cool air will not last long. 500mb heights get pumped up in the southeast and so do the temps. These Cut Off lows are just causing havok !

[Nashville_wx]

[Curt]

The latest CPC long range outlooks show more of the cold air pouring into the Rocky Mountain West while we see warmer conditions with a ridge over the East.

methinks there will be some severe weather (generally speaking) with the pattern that looks to set up in October and possbily into November.

[Nashville_wx]

Nothing out of the ordinary right now tho. The coolest days thus far, are right around the corner with Tuesday nights low of 46F. After this the Pacific will dominate the pattern. However, as the season progresses a more dominate pattern should take over. SST's over the many Nino regions have the eyes of many as we move on along. Enjoy the first 40's and clean out your fireplaces 

[Nashville_wx]

Interesting, super interesting shot here. Who can tell me what they see progress @ 500mb Nothing long term but could provide some more nice weather before another Cut off out west sits.

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

Man next week is going to be beautiful!

[Clay]

X2. I can't wait for the pattern change.

[Curt]

GFS @ NQA (Millington) shows 3 nights in the 40's next week with highs reaching to about 70. Ahhhh...just what the Dr. ordered. This should start the leaf turning process. Hopefully with some dry days ahead and cool nights, the Fall colors should be failry decent this year. Nice to not have them go brown quick due to drought. 

[Thundersnow]

Lows in the mid and upper 40s, highs in the lower 70s forecasted for much of the area the first half this work week. 

And, actually a few days without rain under mostly sunny skies. 

[Nashville_wx]

On the way down but as usual how long do model extend this drop and when does it actually occur

AO is also on the way down with movement of the PV which has been displaced on the other side of the pole.


I am starting to think we could see the next good shot of air around the 10th-15th. I believe the pattern right now is not locked in. When AO NAO is crashing and the PNA wants to really swing up and down its very hard to get one type of pattern locked in. During those times, weather usually is pretty wild.

[Thundersnow]

According to some forecasts, parts of the area may not make it out of the 60s on Tuesday.

It's going to be crisp and refreshing.

[Snowman]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 280800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...
PREFRONTAL WARM SURGE ACR MID TN ATTM. QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH METRO NASHVILLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND
EXIT THE PLATEAU AROUND 8 AM. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS THE BIG STORY MON-WED. H8 TEMPS
PLUNGE INTO THE LWR SINGLE DIGITS (C) OVR THE KY BORDER SO A COLD
AIRMASS FOR SEPT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH N MID TN
TDAY...10 TO 20 MID SOUTH.

WINDS WL DECREASE THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPR 40S TNGT. A COLDER NIGHT IN STORE TUE NIGHT AS CORE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO MID TN. A FEW COOP SITES COULD
REACH THE UPR 30S NORTH EARLY WED. MAINLY CLEAR TUE-WED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW UPSTREAM WL INC HIGH CLOUDS OVR MID TN THU
WITH A SLGT CHC SHOWERS W MID TN THU NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FRI...DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AT THIS POINT.

[snowdog]

Looks like todays 12z GFS is starting to pick up on that dropping NAO and AO.