Winter is about to start

[Nashville_wx]

Was afraid when I saw the huge Cut off Low on the Euro last night. Looks like the GFS has trended that way with a possible hold on a frontal passage/

[Shelly89]

Could really ramp up the fall foliage if this comes true or very close to it. 

Trees here already have the changeover look and leaves were falling yesterday in the wind. I think the foliage is going to be awesome this year and it will be nice to look at. Went to the local orchard on Tue and the leaves on the trees look to be changing and pumpkins and mums are in full force there. I hope this year we have a fall...not hot then cold and snowing right away, I like seasonal changes.

[Curt]

Boo hiss.....

THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DIE OUT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING SO
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS.

[Nashville_wx]

Look at it this way, I would love to have tons of Cut off Lows this winter. Get one to track right and you have a major event. Cough last year for West and South Middle Tennessee.

[Nashville_wx]

[snowdog]

Looks like fall keeps getting pushed further back by the models.  Will this be one of those years where we go from summer to winter and have like 2 weeks of fall? 

[Thundersnow]

Long range outlooks (6-10/8-14 day) still show below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

[Nashville_wx]

[tennessee storm09]

i seriously dont see ne cool down worth talking about until second week of october for what i am seeing in long range

[StormNine]

The models are already breaking our hearts and it isn't even November yet.   

[Cameron K.]

The longer the frosts hold off will be better for me. I still have a crop of baccy that needs sunny and mild weather. Come mid November, I'll be game for all the WWS Mother Nature can deal out. However at this point normal temps doesn't bother me a bit.

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

Sign's of cooler temps this weekend..

[Nashville_wx]

Pretty strong CPC forecast. Also see PNA rising in the extended. Looking at 500mb blocking keeps this western ridge strong. Strong NW flow the CAA could very well bring temps down into the 40's for evening lows.Keep in mind this is 8-10 days away if you listen to the GFS. EURO and CMC seem to show a Cut off Low around western NY ushering in NW flow on its backside bringing in cooler temps this coming weekend.





Also looking at Ensemble data it seems to point to this solution. GFS Ensemble around 144hours leaning to the Euro somewhat. More runs will be needed to see how this weekend shapes up but I believe we will see cooler temps usher in and then a major shot of cold air sometimes after the 20th of the month. Given the amount of QPF that is being show for midweek it will be interesting to see where high temps end up given the amount of cloud cover.

12Z GFS Ensemble Day 10

[Nashville_wx]