Winter is about to start

[Nashville_wx]

Pretty strong CPC forecast. Also see PNA rising in the extended. Looking at 500mb blocking keeps this western ridge strong. Strong NW flow the CAA could very well bring temps down into the 40's for evening lows.Keep in mind this is 8-10 days away if you listen to the GFS. EURO and CMC seem to show a Cut off Low around western NY ushering in NW flow on its backside bringing in cooler temps this coming weekend.





Also looking at Ensemble data it seems to point to this solution. GFS Ensemble around 144hours leaning to the Euro somewhat. More runs will be needed to see how this weekend shapes up but I believe we will see cooler temps usher in and then a major shot of cold air sometimes after the 20th of the month. Given the amount of QPF that is being show for midweek it will be interesting to see where high temps end up given the amount of cloud cover.

12Z GFS Ensemble Day 10

[Snowman]

Looks like fall is quickly approaching NashvilleWx! Glad to see you back posting things. Means cold weather is on the way. 

[StormNine]

Could really ramp up the fall foliage if this comes true or very close to it. 

[Nashville_wx]

Interesting note from OHX.

000
FXUS64 KOHX 132022
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
322 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
H5 LOW OVER EAST TX APPEARS TO BE MOVING LITTLE. EXTENSIVE
MOISTURE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
MOVING NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM LESS
THAN ONE INCH TO ALMOST TWO INCHES BY MON AFTN. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THE TX LOW AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM
SWRN MO TO SRN SC. FURTHER NW IS ANOTHER H5 LOW CENTERED OVER MT.

BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BRINGING IN COPIOUS
MOISTURE NWD AS THE TX LOW MOVES NEWD...THROUGH MID WEEK. BEYOND
THAT POINT THE GFS AND EURO GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS WITH THE GFS BRINGING
THE SFC LOW NEWD AND CONTINUING THE WET PATTERN WHILE THE EURO SUPPRESSES
THE MOISTURE SWD A BIT. HOWEVER...BOTH KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AREA. THUS POPS MAX OUT TUE/WED AND THEN DECLINE
GRADUALLY TO 20 PCT FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...THIS SEEMED TO BE THE WISEST CHOICE.

A BIT OF A CONFUSING TREND IN CPC GRAPHICS. SHOWING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...DON`T SEE SGFNT COLD AIR PENETRATION
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GRAPHICS AND PRECIP SITUATION IS
UNCERTAIN AS I NOTED EARLIER.

[Curt]

0z GFS Day 8...maybe some winter precip in northern MN next week? a definite cool down here IF this is correct.

[Nashville_wx]

Throughout the next 10 days

[Nashville_wx]

Eye candy this far out.

[Thundersnow]

Summer's days are numbered.

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

The overall theme that the GFS ensembles showed has been somewhat tamed down as the Euro and CMC Ensemble both now show a weaker trough in east. As I posted yesterday I was looking at the Ensembles over the OP run of the GFS as I saw better agreement between them. So really time will tell as the overall strength and axis of the trough will be enough to bring a blast of early season cool air.

[dwagner88]

umm . .  . . . .


I'm betting that would bust some records if it verified

[Nashville_wx]

Euro @ 168 hours.



00Z run

GFS is much more amplified as the Euro seems to be less extreme. None the less the Euro has lowered
height anomilies in the east with raised heights in the north atlantic


500mb @ 240 Pretty darn impressive. Too bad more members do not pick this up the the OP run seems to be to the extreme.

[Nashville_wx]

Would be sweet with that nice 1030H

[Nashville_wx]

PNA model spread is going bonkers.

[Nashville_wx]

Pretty intense ULL depicted by Euro here.