Winter is about to start

[Curt]

Will the snow cover help keep cold air cold while it helps provide us with snow?

It keeps the arctic air from modifying on its southward trek into our area, which also helps to keep the storm track southward as well.

[tennessee storm09]

well looks as finally the midwest and plains are finally go to get a pretty good snow cover going next week. that will be a start of a change in the long range maybe. models cant make their mind on the cold air.hopefully after this mid wek storm passes, just maybe the storm track will start to dip farther down too. and also drag some down plenty cold with it. still think christmas week could be interesting. just have a little patience folks.

[Snowmachine]

Good night everybody I'm tired of waiting nap time.

[Charles L.]

OHX has us at a 40% chance for a rain/snow mix Sunday night with a low of 29F...are we going to do this all again tomorrow night?

[Nashville_wx]

Not likely.

[Thundersnow]

I had a low of 19.4 this morning. 

[Crockett]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the Dec. 17-20 time frame? If we can build a ridge in the Pacific by Dec. 15, as modeling suggests, and couple that with an AO that's off the charts in negative territory and a NAO that's fairly negative as well, could we a remake of the same potential we saw this weekend?

I mention Dec. 17-20, because this is the time frame that models have been indicating the potential for a storm in the SE, after the other components are in place. Right now, the GFS isn't showing anything too exciting; this morning's 0z GFS depicts a low forming in the Gulf and bombing once it reaches the eastern seaboard, with limited precip this far northwest. Cold air would be marginal but in place. Still, it seems to my amateur eye that this particular time frame could be an interesting one.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah something must be showing up in that time. because on another forum i think its accuweather forum, already has a thread for the dates 15-18  southeast winter storm. people are already talking about it. i think after mid december things really start to rev up for us on winter.

[dwagner88]

yeah something must be showing up in that time. because on another forum i think its accuweather forum, already has a thread for the dates 15-18  southeast winter storm. people are already talking about it. i think after mid december things really start to rev up for us on winter.

It's sometimes funny to browse that forum and see people asserting forecasts that have no basis whatsoever. That's why I stick around here, ya'll tend to keep it real, so to speak.

[tennessee storm09]

i agree with u dwanger. i just go over there for laughs and amusment.  lol

[Nashville_wx]

I think its fairly safe to take a couple days away from the weather. Past 5 days is a crap shoot right now. My midweek we will most likely have something to watch. Last nights 00Z Ensemble Mean was pretty ehhh.

[tennessee storm09]

whats  that showing nashville_wx.  i think that looks like a zonal flow right. if so pretty much quiet weather with mainly pacific air correct?

[SnowSeek]

Looks like a warmer patter to develop through Christmas.  I am going to go into my winter hibernation even if it feels like spring because I got my pre-christmas snow.  See yall in January when things will get interesting.  Not looking good until! nye

[Snowmachine]

Wow this place is dead considering we're gonnna get sleet and snow later tonight!

[Snowmachine]

Thing will start to pick up when the precip out to our west moves in a little later and all the weather folks start changing their forecasts.