Winter is about to start

[luv4tn]

The longer the frosts hold off will be better for me. I still have a crop of baccy that needs sunny and mild weather. Come mid November, I'll be game for all the WWS Mother Nature can deal out. However at this point normal temps doesn't bother me a bit.

I don't care what the weather after Oct 7 will be ... but until then I like it like it is. A little less rain would be nice though ... 

[Curt]

AFD MEG

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONG
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COULD BE THE FIRST REAL LOOK AT AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.

[Nashville_wx]

Monday may be the coolest night since spring.

[Curt]

Lows in the 40's showing up now for Monday and Tuesday night per 12z bufkit data. Highs in Tuesday in the 60's! The first big cooldown is always one of my favorite times of the year.

[Thundersnow]

Wow, if that model is accurate, the upper Great Lakes could receive some snowfall early next week.

[Curt]

First big storm approaches the Central Rockies tonight. The snow season is only 2.5-3 months away!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
127 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2009

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN THE OVERVIEW SECTION

...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.AN EARLY SEASON STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT...
THEN GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE LOTS OF MELTING AND HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET AND SERIOUS IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL AT EVEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER... ROADS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SLUSHY OR SNOWPACKED IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SUMMIT OF MONUMENT HILL
ON INTERSTATE 25. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
BY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SPLASH BACK FROM STANDING WATER.

[Thundersnow]

Even with all the rain we've had, the trees in my yard have started dropping leaves.

[Nashville_wx]

Yeah, there are leaves blowing around everywhere here today.

[Crockett]

I was glancing through some forecast soundings from the 12z GFS and was shocked to see mid 30s for lows and around 60 for highs for here on the Plateau by next Wednesday-Thursday. I'm not buying that, but I would certainly take it.

(Wish it would show up this weekend for the deer season opener rather than the showers/storms and 80 degrees.

[Nashville_wx]

8-10day MEAN


00Z Euro @ 144 hours


Check out the CMC . The 0C line comes down to the Tn border @ 156 Hours.

[Nashville_wx]

12Z GFS

[Thundersnow]

OHX is forecasting lows in the upper 40s for the Nashville area for the first time this year next Tuesday night.

[Nashville_wx]

Yes it may be short lived tho, too early to tell. With the GFS forecasting another cutoff low. Will have to watch what the models do with this. Otherwise welcome fall.
00Z Euro



12Z GFS

[snowdog]

The models are trying to get fall in here but mother nature keeps thwarting their advances. 

[Thundersnow]

Yep... it's the yearly tug of war being the models and reality.

At least, they're most likely detecting seasonal weather pattern changes.  The details will work themselves out in time.