Winter is about to start

[StormNine]

A little snippet from the NWS PAH discussion for Next Tuesday/Wednesday the 1st and 2nd.

THE MODELS VARY BEYOND MONDAY...BUT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
BEEN PROMINENT IN SEVERAL RUNS. THIS LOW IN SOME RUNS IS RATHER DEEP
AND COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INCLUDING OUR AREA...TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

[Nashville_wx]

00Z GFS is showing signs of snow beginning next week. Still too early to nail down details. Clay I agree with you about this year. Things should pan out and produce this year. Statistics would note we are due anyways. 00Z is east again with Low feature.

[Thundersnow]

Still showing that impressive storm system around 12/1 - 12/3.

Got some fairly good run-to-run consistency anyway.

[toastido]

   

That 1032MB high riding down the western side of the trough isn't going to make it any warmer, either

[ams30721us]

Looks like the Alabama two NWS are starting to throw hints out there about the possible "S" word for next week around Tuesday. Even noting the cooling in thicknesses from yesterdays midnight run to last nights...

HSV First:  :grin:

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EWRD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUN...AND GIVE RISE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS
IN THE NW GOM BY MONDAY. THE GOM SOLN IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME...AND
IS BACKED UP BY THE ECMWF AND A CLUSTERING OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
AVERAGING OF SOLNS AT THIS POINT BRINGS IT ON A PATH SOMEWHERE BTWN
LITTLE ROCK AND HUNTSVILLE...A BIG SPREAD I KNOW...BUT THIS IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT. RESULTING WX IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/WIND
MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE WRAPAROUND FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM.[/u]

then BHM:

THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING AS A FAIRLY
LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY.  THICKNESS VALUES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER SINCE
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN...AS 5250DM VALUES PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HATTIESBURG BY TUESDAY MORNING.  THE GOOD NEWS FOR ALABAMA...WE ALL
KNOW EVERYTHING HAS TO PERFECTLY PHASE TOGETHER TO GET THE ESS
WORD.  SO...THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW WILL BE ON MONDAYS WEATHER...WHICH
HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP SO FAR...LOW LEVEL JET...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...ALL WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT I OBVIOUSLY WILL REFRAIN FROM JUMPING TO
ANY CONCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT.

Monday looks pretty wet right now along with maybe some wind then Tuesday COULD be more wintry here in the southeast.....

[Charles L.]

OHX has a 20% chance of rain/snow showers for Thursday night and have now included a 30% chance for rain/snow showers for Monday night as well.

 

EDIT: Just looked at Scottsville, KY's forecast and they are forecasted for 20% on Thanksgiving night and a 50% chance for Monday night. I am surprised they would put that big of a chance out with the "possible event" occurring a while from now.

[toastido]

OHX has a 20% chance of rain/snow showers for Thursday night and have now included a 30% chance for rain/snow showers for Monday night as well.

 

EDIT: Just looked at Scottsville, KY's forecast and they are forecasted for 20% on Thanksgiving night and a 50% chance for Monday night. I am surprised they would put that big of a chance out with the "possible event" occurring a while from now.

Well I'll be in Nashville for the Thanksgiving holiday, so I hope this happens.  It'd be good to see some of the white stuff again

[Thundersnow]

The long range 12Z EURO is generating a lot of interest today...

 

1050 MB High invading the US/Canadian border by Day 10.  That equals Arctic unload.

[Clay]

I am wondering about the prospects of the gulf low about 1 week out on the GFS. Right now the GFS has the cold front arriving a little late but a week out timing can change. I've illustrated my point in the image below from the 18Z GFS.


[attachment deleted by admin]

[Thundersnow]

Looks like a potential Miller A...

[Thundersnow]

December is looking to be off to an interesting start.

[Clay]

December is looking to be off to an interesting start.

Yep.

Look at the NAO for the first half of December.

[tennessee storm09]

and it also looks the souther tropicaal jet is going to get quite active during this time.   could be fun n games soon

[Nashville_wx]

I am wondering about the prospects of the gulf low about 1 week out on the GFS. Right now the GFS has the cold front arriving a little late but a week out timing can change. I've illustrated my point in the image below from the 18Z GFS.

Have to get a phaser!

[bigalpha]

So a negative NAO correlates to a colder winter?