Looking into the next5-10 days the overall 500mb flow pattern will bring below normal temperatures to this region as indicated by the CPC. I am starting to gear up for Fall/Winter . Its time to go back and look at the past during weak Nino events. The winter of77-78 is starting to interest me as well as some others. I can tell you that winter had 25" of snowfall ,but its still too soon to try and match Enso states until we get a better picture on strength and overall bias. Depending on ENSO strength this winter, the MJO may not be as active as it usually is not during Nino events. This leaves us other features that will dominate the winter pattern allow focus on their mechanics and interaction with the overall NA pattern. I am favoring a +PNA this winter along with a better storm track given we end up in a Weak EL Nino which i also am favoring at this point. Stratospheric warming events that end up working their way down ( propagating) may result in a favorable -AO which is also has been linking to a -NAO state. East and West Bias NAO state has been talked about for some time now and thanks to a few we have more information than ever. This is no forecast but a insight into what seems to be a awesome winter ahead.
