Winter 2009-2010

[dwagner88]

Actually we're not alone. Knoxville has also had little action in the last few years. Another thing to note is that the winter of 07-08 yeilded much more snowfall for West Nashville, than the Eastern part of the city. The March 2008 snowstorm scraped Nashville and I-65 was the west/east cutoff line. I remember Bellevue (SW Nashville) got 5", I got 4" (South Central), and the airport got less than 1" (Southeast).

Actually Knoxville got closer to average last year than anybody else except KMEM. They finished with over 5 inches of snow on the season. It is amazing what a difference that 100 mile trip up I-75 can make. Down here we only had a Trace all winter, despite 14 days with snowfall. up there, 5 inches. I think tri-cities was actually slightly above normal for snowfall.

[Thundersnow]

Here's Smackuweather's forecast for the winter:



 

That's a pretty decent looking pattern if it pans out.

[toastido]

Here's Smackuweather's forecast for the winter:

 

That's a pretty decent looking pattern if it pans out.

Isn't accuweather the one that makes the winter weather weenies cry though? 

[Clay]

Here's Smackuweather's forecast for the winter:



 

That's a pretty decent looking pattern if it pans out.

I've seen that forecast by them too many times and have been disappointed every time. I'll believe and accuweather forecast when I see it.

[Curt]

That forecast does however correlate with winter 02-03, given the weak and possibly dying nino. No two winters are alike though. I think Bastardi always likes the NE and mid-atlantic for snow and cold.

[Thundersnow]

It may not be worth a lot, but we are turning the corner on the seasonal average temperature trend right about now.

On August 3rd, the average high in Nashville was 89, and the average low was 70.  That's the approximate seasonal peak.

But, as of today's date, the average low has slipped a degree down to 69. 

It's not much.  But, it does mean, climatically speaking, that after months of the average warming trend between winter and summer... we are now beginning to go back in the other direction.  In other words, we've reached the average annual peak, and the trend will be downward from this point forward.  Let the annual seasonal cooling trend begin!   

It will take a few weeks for it to really become noticeable (aside from the regular fluctuations of some days being warmer or cooler).

We're probably still a month or so out from the first noticeable blast of autumn-like weather (unless we see an early arriving Canadian airmass).

[Clay]

It seems like yesterday I was watching Tim Ross say "from this point on it's all up hill" last January. How the year has flown.

[Woodvegas]

We need to keep an eye on the strength of the El Nino during the upcoming winter since it correlates pretty well with how much wintry weather we get. Based on a review I did a couple of years ago looking at the seasons with above average snowfall the optimal ONI for us during an El Nino (DJF) is ~+0.7. Above average snowfall fell primarily between ONI values of +0.5 to +1.2.

[Nashville_wx]

We need to keep an eye on the strength of the El Nino during the upcoming winter since it correlates pretty well with how much wintry weather we get. Based on a review I did a couple of years ago looking at the seasons with above average snowfall the optimal ONI for us during an El Nino (DJF) is ~+0.7. Above average snowfall fell primarily between ONI values of +0.5 to +1.2.

And we are on the way to having a great winter as data is not suggesting a Moderate/Strong Nino. The E/W Bias this year also needs to be taken account of and somehow plugged into the equation. I am going to have to go back at look at the West/East bias Nino's. I believe that this winter will favor a much better storm track. Too early to really tell other than the major players that are gearing up for fall and winter.

[Nashville_wx]

Looking into the next5-10 days the overall 500mb flow pattern will bring below normal temperatures to this region as indicated by the CPC.  I am starting to gear up for Fall/Winter . Its time to go back and look at the past during weak Nino events. The winter of77-78 is starting to interest me as well as some others. I can tell you that winter had 25" of snowfall ,but its still too soon to try and match Enso states until we get a better picture on strength and overall bias. Depending on ENSO strength this winter, the MJO may not be as active as it usually is not during Nino events. This leaves us other features that will dominate the winter pattern allow focus on their mechanics and interaction with the overall NA pattern. I am favoring a +PNA this winter along with a better storm track given we end up in a Weak EL Nino which i also am favoring at this point. Stratospheric warming events that end up working their way down ( propagating) may result in a favorable -AO which is also has been linking to a -NAO state. East and West Bias NAO state has been talked about for some time now and thanks to a few we have more information than ever. This is no forecast but a insight into what seems to be a awesome winter ahead.
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[Thundersnow]

The winter of77-78 is starting to interest me as well as some others. I can tell you that winter had 25" of snowfall

The late 70s brought three years in a row of much above normal snowfall to Nashville.

All I know is that we're so due a 20+" winter, it's not even funny.

[snowdog]

The late 70s brought three years in a row of much above normal snowfall to Nashville.

All I know is that we're so due a 20+" winter, it's not even funny.

I approve this message.  Nashville has a huge neon bullseye on it. 

[WeatherRocker]

I spent winter last year in Minnesota.  Below average snowfall, they said.  3 feet of snow fell the week of Christmas.  Srsly.  I almost froze my tuckus off. 

Nashville is DUE FOR SNOW!  I like snow.  Let's just not have a 3 footer all at once.  No one here would have a CLUE how to drive in it!

[Eric]

Just to save everyone the anticipation of when the first snow wienie will appear...I AM HERE!  No snow for 2009!  Poopoo on the white stuff.  There will be zero snow this year.  Hang it up, forget about it.  The possibilities of snow this year are slim and none.....and slim's already left town.  HAHAHAHAH!




    Let the games begin!

[Clay]

In a few weeks we should have a contest and guess the snowfall for the winter at BNA.