Winter 2009-2010

[Thundersnow]

How will the temps be though?? It may be showing a lot of moisture, but it also may be too warm and it might come as all rain... I haven't seen anyone talk about the temps for this event, so I don't know though.

Just a tip on reading the above maps... look at the blue lines.  The maps above show temperatures at 850MB, which is at a level in the atmosphere that we look at for possible snow.  The first blue line (the thicker blue line on the maps Nashville_Wx posted) is where the model sees temperatures at the freezing point.  Anywhere north of that is below freezing at the time.  A general rule of thumb... if you're in an area where precip is shown but where the blue lines go south of you, that usually means snow.



There are another set of maps we look at for temperatures closer to the surface... 2M temps.  Those are the temperatures the models see closer to the surface.  That's also important, since temperatures at the surface and aloft need to cooperate.  When I checked those maps on this model run last night, it indicated below freezing temperatures at the surface for most of TN as well.  But, that time period is still over a week out, and surface temps are possibly even more unreliable than what the model shows higher up.

We need to get to within 5 days of the models showing something before we can really talk about having any kind of confidence with it... and, that's if there's other model agreement and consistency.

[bigalpha]

Over runnings means that warm, moist air gets shoved above cold, dry air right?

[ams30721us]

basically yes

[bigalpha]

basically yes

This has the potential to bust since the cold air is so dry?

[ams30721us]

I mean anything has the potential to bust because of diff. variables but this scenerio is better for a more widespread southern event. The basics off moisture overriding a boundary with moisture and precip is a much more better option for the southeast than a wound up low that has a tendancy to either pull up way to much warm air or travel to far inland in the end.

[Franklin SnowKing]

Well folks I guarantee that this storm will happen. And why is that? Because I am leaving on 1/28 for Mexico! Just my luck we'll get slammed for the first time in many years and I won't be here to witness it. Oh well maybe we'll get another couple of chances after this one.

[dwagner88]

I don't like over running it always winds up 33 and raining here while it snows to The north. I'm usually too far south to benefit from these

[Adam]

No don't overrun! I will get rain, it happens everytime.

[Snowmachine]

Has anyone checked out the radar returns moving toward us? Nice little t-storm line forming and it also looks like a small low pressure center moving through Oklahoma, not sure about that though but the radar returns there have a twist to them.

[rhea weather]

Extremely Heavy rain continues to train over Eastern, TN. 

[Thundersnow]

Coming back from the morning workout, I notice light rain falling with some flaky, icy stuff mixing in a bit.

[Eric]

Coming back from the morning workout, I notice light rain falling with some flaky, icy stuff mixing in a bit.

Ran through a fairly robust sleet shower this morning.

[DocB]

Just had a very "moderate" sleet shower here next to Smyrna airport.

[shadowbird]

Snow showers in East Hickman County (Lyles) at 9:30. The wind has really kicked up and clouds have rolled in. Temp is 35 degrees.

[servocrow]

Snow showers in East Hickman County (Lyles) at 9:30. The wind has really kicked up and clouds have rolled in. Temp is 35 degrees.

The radar returns in Houston, Humphries, Benton, Dickson, Montgomery, and Cheatam (and well as S. KY and Plateau) are pretty healthy right now.