Winter 2009-2010

[Tom23]

Could someone explain what truncation means please?? Thanks.

[JJJackson]

This weekend is the last chance to catch up on sleep. Model Watch 2010 II is about to commence.

[Eric]

Could someone explain what truncation means please?? Thanks.

I think it's when the models enter their "sweet spot".  Correct me if I'm wrong.....

[Kevin]

I think it's when the models enter their "sweet spot".  Correct me if I'm wrong.....

Right...though I guess technically its the reverse...where the GFS (in particular) moves from hr 180 to hr 192 and it moves into a lower resolution...both vertical and horizontal...meaning its accuracy/detail...theoretically...will be muddier than from 180 hours or earlier.

[SnowSeek]

well let's see what happens, there has been increasing chatter on a good many number of places about the potential jan 27 and beyond.  Joe Bastardi likes a nice Feb setup and it's analoged with some epic febs of the past. 

Here in TN you never want to see yourself banking on Feb for a good chunk of your winter because that normally means one thing: The prior has stunk! lol

But we all know the weather cycles and I think it will cycle back into the cold for feb.  One thing is for **** certain, I am sick of the cold air arriving late, moisture not available when it's here, or any other voodoo storm 300 hours out...Not for everyone else but I am really limiting my interest in any storm until 5-6 days out.  Saves alot of time and dissapointment.

[Thundersnow]

Nice little potential snow event there... right at the truncation cutover, of course.

[Susan]

Here in TN you never want to see yourself banking on Feb for a good chunk of your winter because that normally means one thing: The prior has stunk! lol

As a native Nashvillian, it feels like our winter snow time is the last week of January through the second week of February.  I am sure someone can pull up the statistics and prove me wrong, but that is the time I think of as our true "wintertime".

Susan

[Thundersnow]

As a native Nashvillian, it feels like our winter snow time is the last week of January through the second week of February.  I am sure someone can pull up the statistics and prove me wrong, but that is the time I think of as our true "wintertime".

Susan

Susan,

That's about right.  Here's a quick rundown of the number of storms that have produced six inches of snow or more in Nashville since 1884 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=snowstorms):

December 15-31... 3
January 1-15... 4
January 16-31... 7
February 1-15... 7
February 16-28... 2
March 1-15... 1
March 16-31... 3

So, clearly, the big snows are historically clustered between mid-January and mid-February.  Statistically, the peak of big snow season is right around February 1st.

[Sbeagles]

Lol last couple of years in Perry Co winter has began and ended in the first week of march 

[Nashville_wx]

Tonight's 00Z GFS ensemble mean is screaming over running event.

[Nashville_wx]

Wow CPC coming taking us out of the dry zone. Pretty big jump for them to make.

[Nashville_wx]

I would like to see how this ULL plays out first.

[Nashville_wx]

[Tom23]

How will the temps be though?? It may be showing a lot of moisture, but it also may be too warm and it might come as all rain... I haven't seen anyone talk about the temps for this event, so I don't know though.

[Adam]

How will the temps be though?? It may be showing a lot of moisture, but it also may be too warm and it might come as all rain... I haven't seen anyone talk about the temps for this event, so I don't know though.

Right now if you look at the models the temp. won't be a big deal.