El Nino .... better winters?

[bigalpha]

I see that we may be rolling into an El Nino event again.  This means wetter winters, right?

[Curt]

Really depends on the stregnth of the nino. El ninos usually result in wtter conditions, but sometimes the subtropical jet can end up futher south than TN. Temps are generally cooler b/c of clouds and rain. The northern plains end up warmer than usual which for us means less arctic intrusions than before. If you want more snow and cold, a weak el nino is a much better signal for us in TN than a moderate or strong one. The stronger the el nino, the warmer we end up meaning winter storms become less of a factor. There is more to winter than just el nino though(ie NAO, MJO).

[Woodvegas]

Based on a review I did a couple of years ago looking at the seasons with above average snowfall the optimal ONI for us during an El Nino (DJF) is ~+0.7. Above average snowfall fell primarily between ONI values of +0.5 to +1.2. There is a good chance we will end up near the upper end of this favorable range.

[StormNine]

  Precipation really depends on where the subtropical jet sets up.  Sometimes this can result in average to above average precip if it gets up into Mid TN.  Sometimes it can be surpressed and only from South California to South Central TX to coastal areas of AL, GA, MS, the state of Florida and coastal Carolinas get most of the rain and in extreme cases can create a huge drought elsewhere.  That is extreme cases.

 Usually it can go either way in Mid TN south, but usually in many el ninos it is at least slightly drier than average from West KY to the western Great Lakes towards the North Plains but that can vary as well.

 Placement of this jet separates the haves and have nots for this winter since the north stream won't be strong.

 Strong El Ninos-  Suck as far as snowfall even though a little bit of success was run from a few blockbusters of 97-98 and 57-58.

 Moderate El Ninos-  Can go either way NAO, Pacfic, and whether it is west,east, neutral is very important.  Can go from blockbuster 78-79, and 02-03 to lackluster 94-95, 06-07.

 Weak El Ninos-  As long as there not extremly east based and the NAO isn't a raging bull can often be the best ENSO for Mid TN, West KY, and the east coast.  Some great winters like 76-77, 77-78 are Weak El Ninos.

[Clay]

  Precipation really depends on where the subtropical jet sets up.  Sometimes this can result in average to above average precip if it gets up into Mid TN.  Sometimes it can be surpressed and only from South California to South Central TX to coastal areas of AL, GA, MS, the state of Florida and coastal Carolinas get most of the rain and in extreme cases can create a huge drought elsewhere.  That is extreme cases.

 Usually it can go either way in Mid TN south, but usually in many el ninos it is at least slightly drier than average from West KY to the western Great Lakes towards the North Plains but that can vary as well.

 Placement of this jet separates the haves and have nots for this winter since the north stream won't be strong.

 Strong El Ninos-  Suck as far as snowfall even though a little bit of success was run from a few blockbusters of 97-98 and 57-58.

 Moderate El Ninos-  Can go either way NAO, Pacfic, and whether it is west,east, neutral is very important.  Can go from blockbuster 78-79, and 02-03 to lackluster 94-95, 06-07.

 Weak El Ninos-  As long as there not extremly east based and the NAO isn't a raging bull can often be the best ENSO for Mid TN, West KY, and the east coast.  Some great winters like 76-77, 77-78 are Weak El Ninos.

 

Nice write up!

[Thundersnow]

I do remember that strong El Nino winters seemed to bring mild and rainy conditions without much snow.  I just think neutral or near neutral conditions (weak La Nina to weak El Nino) is the best range for us to see winter weather in the Midsouth.

[Nashville_wx]

The chances for a Weak El Nino are climbing as time goes on. Also some other things are really looking good for this time of the year. The next 3 weeks is going to shed a lot of light into the winter ENSO state.