Winter 2008-2009

[rhea weather]

looks like a bowling ball on the upper level charts lol BOOM! snow 

[Clay]

yes me to nashville, i was off from work today and took advantage of the pretty weather. done some yard work, 81 degrees today here.

WOW! I only had 73º. Typical March weather for us. Foot of snow one week. 80º wx the next.

[servocrow]

OHX Morning AFD

...ANOTHER KINK MAY BE POSSIBLE WINTER WX NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD MINIMAL BUT DID MENTION RAIN OR SNOW EXTREME NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING.

[Thundersnow]

The ULL from yesterday did not really show up on last night's 0Z GFS.  It just shows a lakes cutter during that time period.

[bigalpha]

Sounds like the snow chances are tapering off.

[Thundersnow]

Yep.  Today's 12Z GFS doesn't show the ULL scenario in that timeframe either.

It was only a little curiosity that popped up on the model yesterday without much support or consistency.

Bring on spring, already. 

[servocrow]

This is the kind of stuff Hubby is going to miss out on as he is leaving the tundra of the frozen north today:

Civil Emergency Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NDC017-035-077-097-102000-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
NORTH DAKOTA STATE PATROL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA STATE HIGHWAY PATROL.

NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED ON INTERSTATE 29 FROM GRAND FORKS SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

$$

HOPKINS




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MNC005-027-111-167-102215-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MINNESOTA STATE PATROL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MINNESOTA STATE PATROL IN DETROIT LAKES.

INTERSTATE 94 FROM MOORHEAD TO FERGUS FALLS WAS CLOSED AT 11 AM
AND WILL REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

HIGHWAY 10 FROM MOORHEAD TO LAKE PARK WAS CLOSED AT 11 AM AND WILL
REMAIN CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1051 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY...

.A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS TO WEST CENTRAL AND MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES
METROPOLITAN AREA...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN NOON CDT AND
3 PM CDT. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET...WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
SNOW DEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ADVANCE
INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE A BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEST OF A LINE
FROM ALEXANDRIA TO GRANITE FALLS. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT WEST OF AN AMERY WISCONSIN...TO
MINNEAPOLIS...TO ST JAMES LINE...WHERE LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH THE 10 INCH AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY FROM MORRIS...TO
ALEXANDRIA...TO LITTLE FALLS...TO ONAMIA ON NORTHWARD.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 25 TO
30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064-110000-
/O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090311T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-YELLOW MEDICINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...
MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...GRANITE FALLS
1051 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 10 INCH
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY IN THE MORRIS AND ALEXANDRIA AREAS. WINDS
CHILL READINGS WILL FALL TO 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[Curt]

Wouldnt be surpised at all to see reports of freezing rain and sleet in the Metro Memphis and Nashville areas tomorrow night and possibly Thursday morning. GFS is much more bullish on frozen precip than NAM, but even the NAM lloks to crank out a small amt of frozen precip at KMEM tomorrow night. NWS feels best chance will be to the north of the metro and I agree, but think it could slip south somewhat into the northern burbs.

If this bufkit from coolwx.com were to be true(12z GFS), it would be a major event...just dont think thats gonna happen.

[servocrow]

KMEM does mention the chance in their AFD:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY....SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR
FILTERING INTO THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS
PATTERNS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A WYNNE ARKANSAS TO RIPLEY TENNESSEE TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP...CLOUDS
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 40 FROM THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTH AND MID 40S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

And OHX:

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
THEN EXPERIENCE COOL LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN WEST SOUTHWEST...BRINGING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL PERIOD LATE THIS WEEK
WITH SOME PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY NORTH OF I 40. AGAIN...THE DETAILS ARE
UNCLEAR..BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

[Thundersnow]

...as does OHX:

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
THEN EXPERIENCE COOL LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN WEST SOUTHWEST...BRINGING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL PERIOD LATE THIS WEEK
WITH SOME PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY NORTH OF I 40. AGAIN...THE DETAILS ARE
UNCLEAR..BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

[Charles Loring]

OHX has Westmoreland at 44ºF for a high Thursday with rain/snow around, then on Thursday night they have us dropping to 30ºF with a rain changing to snow senerio.

[servocrow]

 



"Shoulda refreshed my screen before I edits...sez da kitty...."

[Kevin]

The 0z NAM has certainly made things more interesting for the Mid-South. Still a ways out there (well...only about 36 hours out but still a ways for this situation) but perhaps winter not over yet for some part of our area...

[Clay]

The 0z NAM has certainly made things more interesting for the Mid-South. Still a ways out there (well...only about 36 hours out but still a ways for this situation) but perhaps winter not over yet for some part of our area...

To me STs are going to be just too warm for anything major across our region IMO. Will be interesting to watch for any surprises though!

[Curt]

The 0z NAM has certainly made things more interesting for the Mid-South. Still a ways out there (well...only about 36 hours out but still a ways for this situation) but perhaps winter not over yet for some part of our area...

Care to elaborate my friend?