March Snow 2008 (March 7-8 Snow Discussion)

[Thundersnow]

In addition to the system early in the week, the NWS is now mentioning the system late in the week (which was on the 0Z GFS last night).

Nashville AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
325 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...A REALLY NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS MID TN WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A WARMING TREND. ENJOY IT BECAUSE VERY UNSETTLED
WX IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER MESS
LATE WEEK.

AT 08Z...A COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
AREA...AND ALL THE SHOWERS HAD ENDED. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WAS
ALONG A LAFAYETTE TO NASHVILLE TO LINDEN LINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUTTA HERE BY DAYTIME. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER MID TN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY ND TUESDAY. MONDAY MAY START OFF DRY AND MILD...BUT
APPROACH OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
WARM AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
WITH HIGH POPS AND POSSIBLY STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING...SO A RAPID
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. OF COURSE...DETAILS
ARE IN QUESTION LIKE EXACT TRACK OF LOW. REASONABLE FORECASTS
COULD RANGE FROM TRACE SNOW SHOWERS TO SEVERAL INCHES. FOR NOW WE
WILL STICK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY.

WX SETTLES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING
A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE AROUND THURSDAY. AS IF EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS NOT
ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH...GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH
BIG SNOW POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SOLUTION IS IN DOUBT AND WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE MANY TIMES...SO FOR NOW
WE WILL FORECAST ABOUT 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

And, the beat rolls on...

[Conservative1]

In addition to the system early in the week, the NWS is now mentioning the system late in the week (which was on the 0Z GFS last night).

Nashville AFD:

And, the beat rolls on...

 

 I got my snow shovel ready. The tractor is freshly greased and rarin' to plow. The cars are stocked, and the 1960's model Radio Flyer sled is tightened up and ready to go. My two year old daughter's snowsuit is hanging by the door, and my gloves are on the table.

Fire it up!

[servocrow]

Let her rip....My boys have snow boots that I had my parents "BUY BIG" for them a couple of years ago for Christimas--THEY ARE PRACTICALLY IN NEW CONDITION!!

This will be the last year they can squeeze their feet in them

TS, you back home yet?

We're saving "THE BIG ONE" for ya...

[tornadofreek1]

I can defiantly deal with another mess..

[Woodvegas]

3-1 0Z Euro says no storm late next week. Winter weather may be pretty much over for us after Tuesday.

[ams30721us]

? hmmm 3-1 0z Euro shows a less broad surface low but does show a disturbance in the flow in the southeast just not as developed as the GFS....when the tuesday system showed up on the GFS the 00Z Euro from that day didnt show it either...they didnt agree till the next day on the 12Z runs....then the Euro was the colder model.....just bc one run doesnt show the same solution doesnt mean there will be no storm and to say that Winter Weather may be pretty much over after tuesday now that we are entering into this PATTERN of waves and troughs because of a run of the Euro model is not very wise but just my opinion....

[servocrow]

WELCOME ams30721us!!!!!!  I cannot read model runs well, but have learned not to live and die by each run..

Enjoy the forum!!

[jmundie]

AMS,

Thanks for being a voice of reason. Some of the noobs here live and die by each model run, and its frustrating for someone to cancel march because of one run of the euro.

[ams30721us]

thanks for the welcome everyone...

[Woodvegas]

? hmmm 3-1 0z Euro shows a less broad surface low but does show a disturbance in the flow in the southeast just not as developed as the GFS....when the tuesday system showed up on the GFS the 00Z Euro from that day didnt show it either...they didnt agree till the next day on the 12Z runs....then the Euro was the colder model.....just bc one run doesnt show the same solution doesnt mean there will be no storm and to say that Winter Weather may be pretty much over after tuesday now that we are entering into this PATTERN of waves and troughs because of a run of the Euro model is not very wise but just my opinion....

Welcome to the board. I welcome critical reviews of my opinions especially when I learn something from them. I claim no expertise and my thoughts are not meant to be a written in stone forecast. I agree that trends in the models are way more important than a single model run. IMO the Euro is much better than the GFS beyond 5 days and I put more stock in it than the GFS. The 0Z Euro run is ugly out to 10 days after Wednesday. That being said, the Euro is not a perfect model.

[Nashville_wx]

Yup I am about sick of hearing this winter sucks, winter is over, after this this there is no more snow.  Come april say that all u want.

[Reneezelle]

Come April yes, then say it. There is plenty of time for some good ol' March snow. AND think about this. If we all lived in the land of predictable snow we'd be in constant complaint of the hassle it causes. I don't wanna go to work in it. So I prefer living here where we have pretty nice weather a lot of the time and the thrill of a possible snow event. The fun is in the anticipation and the snow day when it does happen. If it happened all the time where would the fun be?!
  Yes once a year would be good but getting mad about the WEATHER that we cannot control is pointless. Hold on to the hope people!!!

[snowdog]

With all due respect Nashville_Wx this winter has sucked.  We have had what 1 to 2" total this year?  Sure we have a shot at a big event in the next week...but since Meteorological Spring starts today we can wrap up Winter 2008 and throw it in the garbage where it belongs.  It wouldnt take much for Spring 2008 to out do Winter 2008. 

[Snowman]

Prescription of Chill Pills to All! Take once daily with food. Preferably Bacon.   

Ya'll Chill Out. It will snow or it won't. Only the good Lord knows.

[servocrow]

Prescription of Chill Pills to All! Take once daily with food. Preferably Bacon.   

Ya'll Chill Out. It will snow or it won't. Only the good Lord knows.

Preach IT!!!